- Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu exports peaked in March at about 4.07 million barrels per day before falling to 2.39 million barrels per day in June, a 41% drop.
- Middle East Gulf crude exports slumped 82% from January to June, while Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar recorded zero exports by June as Hormuz remained constrained.
- The shift from Hormuz to Yanbu has eased one bottleneck but exposed another, with the Bab al Mandeb route now carrying greater strategic risk for Asian buyers.
Saudi Arabia’s emergency rerouting of crude exports through its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu peaked in March, then weakened steadily through June as regional shipping remained heavily disrupted. Wood Mackenzie data show that Yanbu handled about 4.07 million barrels per day in March, before volumes fell to 2.39 million barrels per day in June, a decline of 41% from the peak and 66% below January’s overall Saudi export level.
The broader Gulf export picture was even more severe. Wood Mackenzie said crude exports from the Middle East Gulf fell 82% between January and June, dropping from an average of 18.8 million barrels per day across 370 cargoes to about 3.4 million barrels per day across 71 cargoes. Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar all recorded zero exports by June, while the United Arab Emirates kept a reduced flow of about 0.56 million barrels per day.
The rerouting came after the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down for seaborne crude following conflict in late February. Saudi Arabia shifted almost all exports to Yanbu via the East West Petroline, with 98.6% of June liftings leaving through the Red Sea terminal and only one cargo clearing the Gulf.
Trade patterns show Saudi barrels moving mainly to Asia and the eastern Mediterranean rather than Europe. Recorded cargoes in June and July included deliveries to Egypt, Malaysia, Pakistan, India, South Korea and Japan, while no direct European crude shipments from Saudi Red Sea terminals were recorded over that period.
Refined product flows have continued at lower levels, with June and July tracking showing 171 regional product cargoes, including jet fuel and diesel shipments to Europe. The market now faces a second chokepoint risk at Bab al Mandeb, which means the Red Sea alternative is no longer a clean escape route from Hormuz disruption.
Wood Mackenzie analyst Ian Solis said the market had treated Yanbu as the answer to Hormuz risk, but warned that a sustained disruption at Bab al Mandeb would turn one strategic bottleneck into another.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
