- Meridian Economics’ annual South Africa Power Market Report provides independent, credible perspectives on the future of the South African power system.
- The report provides long-term scenario-based projections of future wholesale power market prices, capture prices for renewable energy and market pricing curves for shorter- term PPAs.
The projections are supported by a review of sector developments, including market growth, regulatory and market structure evolution, technology costs, carbon pricing and other factors. Underpinning the report is the Meridian power market modelling suite (COMPASS), as well as the team’s insights into the sector, developed through deep involvement in all aspects of the SA energy system.
Image credit: Meridian Economics
Recent developments:
Batteries leap forward
- A 20% drop in costs in early 2025 supercharges solar-plus-storage.
- Prioritises batteries for new capacity services and delays need for new peaking plant.
- Reduces the scale of wind-power.
Gas loses ground
- …combined with rising gas turbine prices, reduces the opportunity for CCGTs.
Tail-end renewables squeezed
- Lower forecast long-term fuel prices erode the residual value of renewables.
Carbon tax looms large
- System marginal prices swing sharply with plausible carbon tax scenarios – underlining policy-driven risk.
Link to the report HERE
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
