- Global population could peak at 8.9 billion by 2053 before falling to 7.0 billion by 2100.
- Energy demand growth may weaken as ageing populations and smaller workforces slow GDP.
- Electricity demand still set to surge, with consumption expected to double by 2060.
Wood Mackenzie has warned that accelerating declines in global fertility rates could materially reshape long term energy demand, challenging assumptions that have underpinned the sector for decades.
The firm points to a United Nations low birth rate scenario in which the global population peaks at 8.9 billion in 2053 before declining to 7.0 billion by the end of the century. This contrasts with current UN projections that see population rising to 10.0 billion by 2060.
Global fertility has fallen sharply to 2.2 births per woman in 2025, close to the 2.1 replacement level required to maintain population stability. The rate stood at 2.6 in 2007, highlighting the speed of the decline and its growing implications for economic growth and energy consumption.
Wood Mackenzie said demographic change is now a core risk factor for long term planning, alongside geopolitical instability. Shrinking working age populations are expected to weigh on global GDP, reducing the pace of energy demand growth over time.
China illustrates the trend clearly. The country recorded a birth rate of 5.6 per 1,000 people in 2025, its lowest on record. Its population declined by 3.4 million last year to 1.40 billion, around 9.6 million below earlier UN projections.
Despite these shifts, global energy demand is still expected to grow in the medium term. Wood Mackenzie forecasts primary energy consumption will rise by 8% to a peak of 717 exajoules in 2035 before easing to 672 exajoules by 2060. Over the same period, electricity consumption is projected to double to 71 petawatt hours.
Strong demand fundamentals remain, particularly across Asia and Africa, where unmet energy needs, rising incomes and expanding electrification continue to drive consumption. Growth in renewables and artificial intelligence is also reinforcing a structural shift away from hydrocarbons.
However, a lower population trajectory could intensify structural changes in the energy system. Smaller workforces are likely to accelerate investment in automation and AI, increasing demand for electricity and critical minerals while creating headwinds for oil and gas demand.
There are also broader economic risks. Increased automation could concentrate wealth among capital owners, potentially limiting consumer demand and amplifying inequality.
Wood Mackenzie noted that demand for critical minerals will remain robust regardless of demographic trends, driven by electrification, clean energy deployment and digital infrastructure. The availability of capital is not the main constraint, but timely policy action will be critical to ensure investment is deployed before demographic pressures deepen after 2060.
The firm added that governments face rising pressure on public finances and living costs, and must act to secure both public and private investment in energy systems. Early investment in clean and efficient infrastructure could help offset slower economic growth through productivity gains.
An earlier and lower global population peak is now a realistic scenario. Its impact on energy markets will depend on how effectively countries manage the interplay between demographics, technology and economic growth, with implications for the next phase of the global commodities cycle.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
