- More than 28 GWdc of solar inverter demand and 12% of energy storage deployments affected between 2026 and 2030.
- Central and Eastern Europe expected to see the greatest impact due to reliance on EU funding.
- Restrictions could widen significantly if adopted across national funding programmes.
A European Commission decision to restrict the use of solar inverters and power conversion systems from China and other high risk countries is set to affect around 14% of projected solar PV demand across the European Union through 2030, according to Wood Mackenzie.
The policy applies to all EU funded clean energy projects and is expected to impact more than 28 GWdc of inverter demand over the period. Energy storage is also exposed, with about 12% of planned deployments likely to be affected, particularly in utility scale applications.
The move is aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese suppliers, which accounted for more than 80% of inverter shipments into Europe in 2025. Markets in Central and Eastern Europe are expected to be the most exposed, including Romania, Bulgaria, Czechia, the Baltic states and Greece, where EU backed funding plays a major role in project development.
The European Commission has also urged member states to apply similar restrictions to projects funded through national budgets. If widely adopted, the share of affected capacity could rise well beyond current estimates.
While European made inverter alternatives come at a higher cost, Wood Mackenzie estimates the overall increase in project costs will remain relatively limited, ranging between 2% and 8% depending on the segment. However, developers may face additional hurdles including procurement delays, system redesign and the separation of integrated battery and inverter solutions, particularly in cost sensitive markets.
The impact of the policy is expected to extend beyond Europe. Utility scale solar projects in North Africa, the Middle East and the Caspian region that rely on EU institutional finance will also fall under the restriction.
Further changes under consideration could significantly broaden the scope. Proposed updates to the EU Cybersecurity Act may classify solar inverters as critical infrastructure, potentially extending restrictions to all projects regardless of funding source.
Wood Mackenzie estimates the shift could redirect around 4 GW to 5 GW of annual demand away from Chinese suppliers through 2030. However, the majority of Europe’s solar and storage market remains outside EU funding channels, meaning Chinese vendors are likely to retain a strong position unless national governments adopt similar measures.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
