- South Africa’s national power system remains stable according state owned energy utility, Eskom but energy availability factor has decline week on week leading into summer.
Month-to-date, the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) has declined to 22.05%, down from 24.77% during the same period last year—indicating a marked reduction in unplanned outages. The Planned Capacity Loss Factor (PCLF), which refers to planned maintenance, increased to 13.55%, higher than the 13.27% recorded last year. The Energy Availability Factor (EAF) stands at 64.06%, up from 61.63% a year ago, but slightly lower than the previous week due to increased planned outages.
Respected energy analyst Chris Yelland confirms that week 40 shows declining EAF driven by increased maintenance by Eskom Generation as we move into the summer months.
The latest Eskom week-on-week energy availability factor EAF for 2025. Data source: Eskom. Image credit: Chris Yelland. Chris is an energy analyst, consultant, electrical engineer, public speaker, writer and MD at EE Business Intelligence (Pty) Ltd. Follow Chris on X – @chrisyelland
Link to Eskom’s real time performance data portal HERE
Between 3 and 9 October 2025, Eskom recorded an average of 10 835MW in unplanned outages, a significant improvement compared to 11 920MW during the same period last year. This represents a year-on-year reduction of 1 085MW in breakdowns. This trend demonstrates increasing stability and improved reliability across Eskom’s generation fleet.
From 1 April to 9 October 2025, diesel expenditure remained consistently below budget, reflecting reduced reliance on the diesel-powered Open-Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) fleet, with the year-to-date load factor for OCGTs further decreasing to 6.41%. This trend highlights ongoing efficiency improvements, a significant reduction in dependence on diesel generation, and a sustained shift toward more cost-effective primary generation sources.
Ongoing technical improvements under Eskom’s Generation Recovery Plan have ensured a consistent electricity supply for over 97.9% of the time during the current financial year.
The country has gone 147 consecutive days without loadshedding, with only 26 hours recorded between 1 April and 9 October 2025.
To further strengthen grid stability, Eskom is planning to return a total of 3 380MW of generation capacity to service ahead of the evening peak on Monday, 13 October 2025, and throughout the coming week.
Eskom published the Summer Outlook on 5 September 2025, covering the period 1 September 2025 to 31 March 2026, which forecasts no loadshedding due to the structural progress in plant performance as a result of the ongoing implementation of the Generation Recovery Plan.
From 1 April to 9 October 2025, Eskom generated 1.009.05GWh from its OCGT plants, with diesel expenditure totalling R5.983 billion—an increase from last year’s 899.38 GWh. In the past week, diesel spending was R27.74 million at a load factor of 0.758%,which is lower than the same period last year (where spending was R97.4 million at a 2.86% load factor), highlighting sustained efficiency improvements and a significant reduction in reliance on diesel generation this year.
The year-to-date load factor for OCGTs has decreased to 6.41%, reflecting a 0.22% decrease compared to the previous week. This figure remains higher than the 5.72% recorded during the same period last year.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
