- Energy Availability Factor rises to 65.11%.
- 9897MW placed in cold reserve due to excess capacity.
- IPP contractual commitments force diesel spend.
South Africa’s power system continues to stabilise as Eskom confirms that 9897MW of generation capacity is currently in cold reserve due to excess capacity on the system. This milestone marks a sharp reversal from previous years when supply shortages constrained economic activity and undermined investor confidence.
For the financial year to date from 1 April 2025 to 19 February 2026, the Energy Availability Factor has increased to 65.11%. The generation fleet has exceeded the 70% mark on 69 occasions over the same period, signalling measurable progress under the Generation Recovery Plan.
Between 13 and 19 February 2026, average unplanned outages declined to 9980MW, compared to 12765MW during the same period last year, a reduction of 2784MW. The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor improved to 20.77%, down 4.53% from 25.30% a year earlier.
Planned maintenance performance has also strengthened. The Planned Capacity Loss Factor averaged 10.49%, compared to 15.71% in the previous financial year, reflecting improved fleet management and maintenance execution.
Despite surplus generation capacity, diesel powered generation continues to be dispatched due to take or pay contractual obligations with two independent power producers operating Open Cycle Gas Turbine units. These agreements were concluded during a period of severe supply constraints to secure guaranteed minimum usage levels over six-month cycles. Under the terms of the contracts, Eskom is required to pay for committed capacity whether it is utilised or not.
During the past week, 2.48GWh of diesel generation was sent to the grid at a cost of R14.89m, equating to a 0.433% load factor. Year to date, diesel expenditure is R5.49bn lower than at the same time last year, underscoring improved operational performance and tighter cost control. Diesel spending remains below budget and is expected to stay within budget through the end of the financial year.
Looking ahead, Eskom will return 3274MW of generation capacity to service ahead of the evening peak on Monday, 23 February 2026. Peak demand is forecast at 23405MW against available capacity of 26701MW, providing a healthy reserve margin and reinforcing system resilience.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
