Open-Ed
- As Zambia accelerates its energy transition, investors and project developers are increasingly asking whether the country could face grid constraints similar to those experienced in South Africa as renewable capacity expands.
- The short answer is that Zambia’s current transmission network is not yet sufficient to support its ambitious growth targets, but a large scale and coordinated expansion programme is already underway to close that gap, with the private sector taking an increasingly proactive role.
As of early 2026, the Government of Zambia is pursuing a 10000 megawatt generation target by 2030. This strategy is anchored in long term energy security and economic resilience, with a clear emphasis on diversifying away from an over reliance on hydropower. Climate variability and drought conditions in recent years have underscored the risks of a hydro dominated system, prompting a strong policy push toward solar, wind and other renewable technologies.
However, generation growth alone will not secure supply stability. Zambia’s existing grid infrastructure, currently spanning approximately 12700 kilometres of transmission lines, was not designed to accommodate a rapid scale up to 10 gigawatts of installed capacity. To address this structural limitation, the government plans to expand the transmission network to roughly 17700 kilometres by 2030. This expansion is intended to ensure that new power plants can be efficiently connected and that electricity can be delivered reliably to load centres and industrial customers.
Related news: Zambia reduces approval period for solar projects to 48 hours
Transmission investment is embedded within the country’s Integrated Resource Plan, which allocates approximately US$1.4 billion to transmission upgrades out of a total estimated sector requirement of US$11.6 billion by 2030. For business stakeholders, this signals that grid reinforcement is not an afterthought but a core component of national power sector planning. The scale of required capital also opens significant opportunities for engineering, procurement and construction contractors, technology suppliers, and long term infrastructure investors.
Despite these plans, grid bottlenecks have already emerged. By late 2025, constraints in certain corridors were reportedly limiting the ability to evacuate power from newly commissioned renewable projects to demand centres. This challenge mirrors early stage integration issues seen in other fast growing power markets and highlights the importance of synchronised development between generation and transmission assets.
In response, the private sector is not waiting passively for public infrastructure roll out. Independent power producers and large commercial and industrial off takers are increasingly incorporating dedicated grid connection investments, substation upgrades and in some cases embedded generation into their project designs. Public private partnerships and innovative financing structures are also gaining traction as mechanisms to accelerate both generation and transmission delivery. A notable example is Kanona Power, which has announced plans to invest 100 million dollars in a high voltage transmission line linking Zambia and Tanzania. The privately developed project, expected to be completed within approximately one year, will create the first direct power connection between the two neighbouring countries, potentially becoming operational well ahead of a larger World Bank financed inter-connector scheduled for 2028. The line will run between Mwakibete in southwestern Tanzania and Nakonde, a border town in northeastern Zambia.
Kanona Power’s initiative is designed to boost regional electricity trade, reduce supply shortages and improve grid stability in Zambia, particularly for the copper mining sector. Zambia is Africa’s second largest copper producer, and major mining complexes require between 50 megawatts and 150 megawatts of power per site. The transmission line will also increase Zambia’s capacity to import power while providing redundancy for the national grid, enhancing energy security and reducing the risk of future disruptions. The project complements a government led Zambia Tanzania inter-connector and supports the longer term goal of establishing a continuous electricity corridor linking southern and northern Africa from Cape Town to Cairo.
Recent projects continue to demonstrate that lessons are being incorporated into implementation. The 100 megawatt solar plant in Chisamba, for example, included investments in double circuit 132 kilovolt transmission lines and substation expansions to ensure effective integration into the national grid. Such project level grid upgrades indicate a shift toward more integrated planning, where network reinforcement is embedded into generation development rather than deferred.
Regional integration is another pillar of Zambia’s strategy. By strengthening interconnections and leveraging participation in the Southern African Power Pool, Zambia aims to trade electricity more actively within the region. Enhanced cross border transmission capacity will provide flexibility to export surplus generation during high output periods and import power during domestic shortfalls. For large industrial off takers and regional utilities, this integration enhances supply optionality and reduces systemic risk.
For stakeholders, the key takeaway is that Zambia does face transmission constraints today, but these are recognised at policy level and are being addressed through structured investment planning, regulatory support and growing private sector engagement. The viability of the 10000 megawatt target will depend heavily on the pace and coordination of high voltage transmission development alongside renewable generation deployment. Companies entering the Zambian market must therefore assess not only project level fundamentals but also grid connection timelines, network capacity studies, financing structures and regional trade dynamics.
Related news: Renewable energy project announcements in Zambia
If successfully executed, Zambia’s parallel investment in generation diversification, transmission expansion and private sector initiatives could position it as one of the most dynamic power markets in Southern Africa, with growing opportunities across infrastructure finance, equipment supply, grid technology and cross border power trading.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
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