- In an address that signalled a significant and welcome shift in tone and substance in South Africa’s energy discourse, Acting Director-General at the Ministry Energy & Electricity, Subesh Pillay, opened the EE Business Intelligence webinar on Wednesday 7 May 2025 with a call for structural transformation in the country’s electricity and energy planning regime.
Speaking under the theme “Policy and Planning Considerations for Energy and Electricity in South Africa in the Years to 2050,” Pillay declared that the country now stands at a strategic inflection point. “We gather not in the shadow of crisis,” he said, “but at a rare moment of inflection – one where signs of operational recovery offer us the space to shift our gaze beyond the immediate.”
He cited Eskom’s latest Winter 2025 Outlook as evidence of this shift. Notably, South Africa experienced nine months of uninterrupted power supply from July 2024 to March 2025. Unplanned generation losses dropped from over 18 GW in early 2023 to less than 13 GW by April 2025, and energy availability has climbed to 61%, with a trajectory toward a target of 70%.
Crucially, these gains were not driven by diesel overuse but by structural improvements, including the return to service of a number of large Eskom generator units together with public and private sector renewable energy procurements.
Pillay made it clear that the time for reactive management is over. “We now have the opportunity, responsibility and indeed the obligation, to reposition our planning focus – not simply to avoid load shedding, but to power inclusive growth, industrial expansion and climate resilience.”
Beyond technical fixes – addressing structural fragmentation
Tracing the roots of South Africa’s systemic energy fragility, Pillay criticised the last two decades of underinvestment, misalignment between policy and execution, and governance inertia. Deferred updates to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), a long-stalled Integrated Energy Plan (IEP), and fragmented institutional mandates left the country overexposed to breakdowns and unprepared for decentralised energy realities.
Yet, the address was not solely diagnostic. Pillay acknowledged recent progress, indicating his view that the Draft IRP 2025 now integrates industrial and spatial planning more closely, and the Gas Master Plan – said to be in an advanced stage of preparation – aims to address the looming ‘gas cliff’ while fostering regional integration.
Still, he warned, “Until the IEP is finalised and the various planning instruments are nested under a common strategic umbrella, the risk of fragmentation remains.”
A sector redefined – unbundling, competition and market redesign
Pillay also highlighted South Africa’s electricity market transformation, driven by Eskom’s unbundling and the operationalisation of the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA). This, along with NERSA’s new Grid Access Rules and the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, signals a shift toward competitive markets.
“This is a fundamentally new planning and market environment,” he said. Drawing lessons from countries like Vietnam and Chile, he called for a “whole-system approach” integrating generation, transmission, embedded supply and storage, with robust coordination across national, municipal and regional levels.
Planning with purpose – five lenses to 2050
To shape a future-ready energy system, Pillay laid out five core planning lenses:
- Energy security as a developmental imperative: A resilient mix of renewables, gas, clean coal, nuclear and storage – including regional projects like the Mozambique-South Africa gas pipeline.
- Decarbonisation without destabilisation: Emphasising carbon capture, small modular reactors (SMRs) and green hydrogen, while sequencing coal retirements alongside industrial repurposing.
- A fit-for-purpose distribution system: With over R15-billion lost annually in municipal distribution inefficiencies, he called for electricity distribution industry (EDI) restructuring and readiness for rooftop solar, microgrids and bidirectional power flows.
- Flexibility, technology and digitalisation: Expanding smart grids, real-time digital dispatch, and Eskom’s Virtual Wheeling platform, while stabilising grid performance with new technologies.
- Planning as an industrial lever: Tying energy to new industries – green hydrogen, battery minerals and local manufacturing – while driving socioeconomic inclusion and asserting South Africa’s leadership in global forums.
Institutions to match ambitions
However, Pillay cautioned that robust modelling means little without institutional delivery. He outlined three foundational governance imperatives:
- Policy certainty and regulatory clarity: Clear rules under the ERA Act, aligned procurement tools, and synchronised planning frameworks.
- A capable and coordinated state: Enhanced local capacity, improved alignment among Eskom, IPPs, municipalities and regulators.
- Institutionalising planning: Embedding scenario analysis, social inclusion and learning processes within dynamic planning functions.
Energy planning as nation building
Pillay closed his address by reframing energy planning as more than a technocratic duty – it is, he asserted, “a nation-building endeavour.” He stressed that the decisions made today would either entrench inequality or catalyse opportunity; lock in fragility or build resilience.
“As we look toward 2050,” he concluded, “may this webinar not only interrogate models and assumptions, but also challenge institutions, expand inclusion and catalyse the leadership required to deliver the energy future that South Africa and Africa deserves.”
The address sets a bold new tone for what is likely to be a highly contested yet pivotal planning period for South Africa’s energy sector – one that demands not just recovery, but systemic reinvention.
Author: Chris Yelland – MD – EE Business Intelligence
Chris is an internationally respected energy analyst, consultant and electrical engineer. He is considered an expert on the South African energy market. This article was originally published by EE Business Intelligence and republished with permission.
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