- Polysilicon producers signal price stabilisation as self-regulation and output controls gain momentum.
- Wafer and cell prices edge higher on cost pressure and inventory lockups, though transaction volumes remain thin.
- Module prices largely stable, with selective increases expected as cost pressures filter downstream according to those clever people at Infolink Consulting.
Polysilicon prices showed early signs of stabilisation in recent weeks as policy signals and market speculation prompted major producers to announce preliminary self-regulation measures and production control plans. These initiatives are intended to support prices across the solar value chain, with mainstream suppliers lifting spot quotes for mono grade polysilicon to above RMB 65 to 67 per kilogram and granular polysilicon to around RMB 62 per kilogram.
Despite higher quotes, actual transactions have yet to reflect these increases due to weak end market demand. Current deliveries are still largely tied to earlier contracts. Average prices remain lower, with recycled mono grade polysilicon trading at RMB 49 to 55 per kilogram, mono grade at RMB 47 to 51 per kilogram and granular material at RMB 50 to 51 per kilogram. Tier one manufacturers continue to hold recycled mono grade prices firm, while high priced spot deals have seen limited volumes.
Market sentiment remains cautious as inventories rise and demand stays subdued. While manufacturers have reached a broad consensus on output control in the first quarter of 2026, the effectiveness of these measures will depend on actual implementation. As the first quarter is typically a seasonal low, transaction volumes are expected to remain constrained, with gradual demand recovery anticipated toward the end of the quarter.
Wafer prices were broadly flat week on week, although most producers introduced slightly higher quotes from mid-December. Transaction volumes during the transition have remained limited, with some suppliers opting to hold back shipments in anticipation of further price upside. Expectations of higher polysilicon prices, rising silver paste costs and recent increases in cell prices have strengthened the cost support for wafers, leading to cautious optimism that new quotes may gain acceptance.
In the cell segment, N type cell prices in China rose across all major formats to an average of RMB 0.30 per watt. Leading manufacturers increased prices to cover rising input costs, particularly silver, and suspended shipments below this level. As of mid-December, some producers were quoting RMB 0.32 per watt or higher, although these increases have yet to be fully absorbed by module makers, resulting in a temporary pricing disconnect between cells and modules.
Outside China, export prices for both P type and N type cells remained broadly stable in the short term, though shipment suspensions and renegotiations point to upward pressure ahead. Higher end Southeast Asian cells using non China polysilicon continue to command a premium, particularly for the US market.
Module prices in China have so far remained largely unchanged, supported by year end seasonality and softer demand. Some leading manufacturers have begun revising offers, but widespread price increases will depend on the ability to pass higher cell costs through the supply chain and on the scale of production cuts. TOPCon module prices for ground mounted projects currently range between RMB 0.64 and 0.70 per watt, while HJT modules command higher levels depending on power class.
In non China markets, module prices have been broadly stable, although manufacturers have generally raised quotes for 2026 deliveries. Asia Pacific prices remain competitive, Europe has seen little movement amid ongoing export tax rebate considerations, and Latin America and the Middle East continue to trade within narrow ranges. In the United States, pricing remains volatile as supply chain restructuring and compliance requirements linked to Foreign Entity of Concern rules reshape procurement strategies.
Overall, the solar supply chain is entering a period of cautious adjustment. While cost pressures and self-regulation efforts are beginning to influence pricing expectations, a meaningful recovery will depend on demand improvement and disciplined implementation of production controls across the industry.
Link to the full Infolink report HERE
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
