- The investment in the generation recovery plan continues to deliver results with loadshedding remaining suspended for over eight months (247 consecutive days) since 26 March 2024, due to ongoing structural improvements in the coal-fired fleet.
- These improvements are contributing to economic growth and energy security.
The recovery plan has resulted in year-on-year diesel savings of R17.37 billion, approximately 71.9% less than the R24.15 billion spent during the same period last year. Diesel usage remains below the year-to-date budget.
Over the past week, the average total unplanned outages have dropped to 10 612MW, a significant improvement from the 15 671MW recorded during the same period last year, representing a reduction of 5 060MW. Today’s unplanned outages have decreased to 9 672MW, which is 3 168MW lower than the summer 2024 base case, indicating improved operational efficiency over the past week and consistently week after week.
With the December summer break approaching and many industries shutting down for this period, along with continuous progress in minimising unplanned outages, Eskom is well positioned to increase planned maintenance activities to further improve the reliability of its generation fleet.
Eskom’s EAF was at an average of 59.2% over the past week and 63.0% year-to-date, with top-performing stations — including Medupi, Camden, Kusile, and peaking stations — achieving average EAF of 70% and above . Two other power stations recorded EAFs above 60%.
With an available generation capacity of 29 128MW and a peak demand forecast of 25 809MW for tonight, Eskom remains on track to meet electricity demand. By Monday evening, an additional 2 065MW is expected to return online.
In August, Eskom shared its Summer Outlook for the period from 1 September 2024 to 31 March 2025, predicting a likely scenario of a loadshedding-free summer due to structural generation improvements. This outlook remains unchanged.
Key Performance Highlights:
Reduction in unplanned outages:
- The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) is at 24.9% for the financial year-to-date (1 April 2024 to 28 November 2024), improving from 33.6% in the corresponding period last year.
- This reduction in UCLF represents a ~8.6% improvement compared to the same period last year.
Ongoing Planned Maintenance:
Ongoing planned maintenance increased to 9 028MW, aligning with our summer maintenance strategy to further improve the reliability of the stations in preparation for winter 2025 and beyond.
Sustained Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improvement:
- The year-to-date (1 April 2024 to 28 November 2024) EAF is at 63.0%, a significant improvement of ~7.5% compared to the same period last year (55.5%).
- The weekly EAF has improved from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to 59.2% from 25 to 28 November 2024, a slight improvement of 2.2%.
- This improvement is primarily due to a drop in unplanned outages (UCLF and OCLF) of the generation units.
Continued strategic utilisation of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs):
Our strategic use of peaking stations, including pumped storage and OCGTs, remains key in managing electricity demand during peak times, particularly during evening peaks (17:00 to 22:00).
- Eskom’s expenditure on OCGTs between 1 April and 28 November 2024 was about R6.78 billion having generated 1 048.46GWh, approximately 71.9% (R17.37 billion) less than the R24.15 billion spent last year over the same period for 3 870.99GWh.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 April to 28 November 2024 stabilised at 5.29 %, compared to last year’s figure of 19.53%.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 to 28 November 2024 was 4.41%, significantly lower than the 28.70% for the same period last year.
- Diesel usage remains below the year-to-date budget.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
Source: Eskom
