- Shell forecasts global LNG demand to reach almost 700 million tonnes a year by 2050, up 65% from 2025 levels.
- Around 180 million tonnes of new annual LNG supply is expected by 2030, with South and Southeast Asia driving future import growth.
- Despite disruption in the Middle East, Shell says the LNG market has become more resilient and remains critical for global energy security.
Global demand for liquefied natural gas is expected to reach almost 700 million tonnes a year by 2050, representing growth of around 65% from 2025 levels, according to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2026. The company says governments continue to prioritise the energy security and supply flexibility offered by natural gas and LNG as they balance rising energy demand with decarbonisation goals.
Global LNG trade reached 422 million tonnes in 2025 and had been expected to increase significantly in 2026. However, disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has removed around one fifth of the world’s monthly LNG supply from the market since the conflict began, driving higher spot prices and affecting LNG dependent countries across Asia.
New liquefaction capacity coming online in North America, stronger performance from existing LNG facilities and slower import growth in Asia have helped offset reduced exports from the Middle East. Shell expects total LNG trade in 2026 to remain close to 2025 levels if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal during the northern hemisphere summer, with stronger market growth expected to resume in 2027.
“The conflict created a system wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” said Cederic Cremers, President of Integrated Gas at Shell. “While more investment in both supply and demand infrastructure is needed, the long term outlook remains strong and LNG will continue to be a stabilising force in the global energy system.”
Shell forecasts that around 180 million tonnes a year of new LNG supply will enter the market by 2030, improving gas availability and affordability while supporting demand growth in emerging markets. However, the company notes that importing countries will need to expand regasification terminals and pipeline infrastructure to fully benefit from the additional supply, particularly across South and Southeast Asia.
These regions are expected to account for around 40% of global LNG imports by 2050 as countries seek lower emission alternatives to coal while meeting rapidly growing electricity demand. In more mature markets such as Japan, data centres are emerging as an important new source of electricity demand.
The marine sector is also expected to become a significant growth market for LNG. Shell forecasts LNG bunkering demand will increase sevenfold to 27 million tonnes by 2035, exceeding the volume of LNG imported by India in 2025.
Europe is also expected to remain an important LNG market as the region seeks to maintain energy security, balance growing renewable energy capacity and offset declining domestic gas production.
Meeting projected demand will require substantial new investment in liquefaction capacity throughout the 2030s and 2040s. Shell estimates that around 200 million tonnes a year of additional LNG supply will be required beyond projects already under construction.
Although Asian LNG spot prices rose above US$20 per million British thermal units during the peak of the Middle East crisis, they remained well below the levels recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reflecting improved resilience across the global LNG market.
Long term contracts continue to dominate the sector, accounting for around two thirds of global LNG trade. As a result, the average price paid by buyers in May remained between US$11 and US$12 per million British thermal units, compared with US$7 to US$11 in January before the conflict began.
This year’s publication also marks the tenth edition of Shell’s LNG Outlook. Since the report was first released in 2017, global LNG trade has increased by around 60%, from 264 million tonnes to 428 million tonnes. During the same period, China’s LNG imports have grown by approximately 250%, the number of LNG importing countries has increased from 36 to 49, and the global fleet of LNG fuelled ships has expanded from 77 vessels to more than 800.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
