- Draft plan shows R46 billion spend yields only 7–8% SO₂ reduction by 2031.
- Medupi retrofit alone could exceed R56.2 billion capex with long-term opex of R286.2 billion.
- Health impacts remain severe, with about 2,200 deaths annually linked to coal emissions.
South Africa’s state utility Eskom has warned that its latest emissions reduction strategy will deliver limited environmental gains despite significant financial outlay, highlighting the complex trade-offs between air quality compliance, grid stability and affordability.
The draft SO₂ Emission Dispatch Prioritisation Strategy indicates that reducing sulphur dioxide emissions across the coal fleet will cost about R46 billion, while achieving only a 7–8% reduction by 2031. The utility argues that the marginal improvement reflects structural constraints within the power system, including the need to prioritise grid reliability and manage the high operating costs of newer coal plants.
Central to the strategy is a shift in dispatch decisions, where cleaner generating units are prioritised over higher emitting stations. However, this approach is limited by system requirements. South Africa’s grid, which maintained stability for over 350 days into 2026, still depends heavily on high emitting plants to prevent load shedding.
At plant level, the impact remains modest. Emissions at Medupi Power Station are projected to decline only slightly from 254 kT to 235 kT over five years. Medupi, one of the country’s newest coal plants, does not yet have flue gas desulphurisation installed. Retrofitting the facility with wet FGD technology is estimated to require R56.2 billion in capital expenditure and a further R286.2 billion in operating costs through 2071.
Eskom maintains that such investments are difficult to justify, particularly for an ageing fleet approaching retirement. Several stations are scheduled for decommissioning by 2030, making large scale retrofits economically unviable.
The utility also highlights the high cost and resource intensity of emissions control technologies. Wet FGD systems can remove up to 95% of SO₂ emissions but are both capital intensive and water intensive, posing additional risks in water scarce regions such as Lephalale.
A recent cost benefit analysis cited by Eskom suggests that the health benefits of SO₂ reductions are significantly lower than implementation costs. However, civil society organisations dispute this conclusion, pointing to an estimated 79,500 cumulative deaths linked to Eskom emissions over the remaining life of its coal fleet.
Air quality concerns remain acute in the Mpumalanga Highveld, one of the most polluted regions globally. Independent research estimates that emissions from Eskom’s operations contribute to around 2,200 deaths annually. Communities in areas such as Kriel and KwaZamokuhle continue to report high rates of respiratory illness, particularly among children, with more than 94,000 asthma symptom days recorded each year.
Legal pressure has also intensified following the landmark Deadly Air case ruling, which found that poor air quality in the Highveld Priority Area violates constitutional rights.
In response, Eskom is promoting Air Quality Offsets as a more practical and cost effective alternative to plant retrofits. These interventions focus on reducing household level pollution through cleaner cooking and heating technologies, insulation and targeted electricity support in high exposure communities.
The emissions debate is unfolding alongside South Africa’s broader energy transition under the Just Energy Transition Partnership. The programme, valued at more than R150 billion, is structured largely around concessional loans, with only 3–4% allocated as grants. Funding tensions persist as Eskom delays plant closures to safeguard grid stability.
Repurposing initiatives are underway at Komati Power Station, which is being converted into a renewable energy hub with planned solar, wind and battery storage capacity. However, progress has been slower than anticipated due to procurement challenges and a lack of understanding of what a just energy transition means in terms of the local community context and challenges. Read more
Meanwhile, the utility continues to adjust its decommissioning schedule. Stations such as Camden, Hendrina and Grootvlei have been extended to 2030, while newer plants like Medupi and Kusile are expected to operate for several decades.
Energy security considerations are also shaping coal supply decisions. A new long-term agreement between Exxaro Resources and Eskom will supply coal to Matla Power Station until 2043, supported by a R5.2 billion mine expansion project. The deal signals Eskom’s intention to retain key mid-life assets beyond earlier transition timelines.
As regulatory pressure, financing constraints and operational realities converge, Eskom’s latest strategy underscores the difficulty of achieving rapid emissions reductions while maintaining a stable and affordable electricity system in South Africa.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
