- Cell prices continue to decline as higher silver costs and rising inventories weaken market sentiment.
- Polysilicon producers face renewed inventory pressure, with prices expected to soften further during July and August.
- Module prices remain broadly stable, although higher freight costs and regional policy uncertainty continue to influence international markets.
The global solar manufacturing supply chain remains under pressure as weak demand, rising inventories and higher silver prices continue to weigh on market conditions, according to the latest market analysis from InfoLink Consulting. Cell manufacturers are facing increasing pressure to reduce production after inventory levels climbed across China, while polysilicon producers are also confronting renewed stock accumulation.
Polysilicon trading remained subdued during the week, with only limited volumes changing hands and most transactions completed at previously agreed prices. Recycled mono grade polysilicon traded at RMB33 to RMB34/kg, mono grade polysilicon mixed lots at RMB32 to RMB33/kg and granular polysilicon at RMB32 to RMB34/kg.
Demand across the downstream market has yet to recover meaningfully, leaving manufacturers balancing production volumes against shrinking margins. Rising cell inventories have increased pressure on wafer producers, with the impact now spreading further upstream to polysilicon suppliers. Some buyers have delayed deliveries, adding further strain to producers already operating with high inventory levels.
Although polysilicon prices are approaching production cost levels, buyers remain cautious and continue to base purchasing decisions on downstream sales performance. Inventories are expected to build further during July and August.
Production plans for the upcoming wet season have remained largely unchanged, although several manufacturers have scheduled maintenance. With inventories still elevated and limited evidence of meaningful destocking, some producers have accepted lower margins to secure orders. However, transactions remain concentrated among leading suppliers while many manufacturers continue to report limited sales activity.
InfoLink estimates global polysilicon production during June and July will reach between 100000 MT and 110000 MT. The consultancy expects further price declines during July and August, with recycled mono grade polysilicon potentially falling to RMB30 to RMB32/kg and average prices dropping below RMB30/kg if oversupply continues.
Outside China, uncertainty surrounding potential implementation of the United States Section 232 policy has delayed new contract activity for non-United States suppliers. United States produced polysilicon continues to benefit from lower policy risk, with prices showing early signs of strengthening. Market participants are also closely monitoring the potential treatment of polysilicon produced in Oman under future trade measures.
Wafer prices remained unchanged during the week despite increasing signs of pricing pressure, InfoLink said. Average prices held at RMB0.90 per piece for 183N wafers, RMB0.98 per piece for 210RN wafers and RMB1.18 per piece for 210N wafers.
Demand for wafers continues to weaken as higher cell inventories reduce procurement activity. Some products originally intended for export markets have also returned to China, adding further supply pressure. Wafer prices could weaken further if polysilicon costs continue to decline.
India remains focused on reducing previously accumulated wafer inventories, with low priced transactions becoming increasingly common. The timing of any recovery in demand remains uncertain.
China’s cell market continued to weaken during the week. Average prices declined to RMB0.29/W for both 183N and 210RN cells, while 210N cells averaged RMB0.30/W.
Higher silver prices, increased June production and growing inventories have all contributed to deteriorating market conditions. Inventory held by China’s Tier 1 cell manufacturers is estimated to exceed one week of production. In addition, some products originally shipped to India have been returned because of local compliance requirements, further increasing domestic supply. Manufacturers may need to reduce production during July if current pricing levels are to remain sustainable.
Outside China, p type 182P cell prices remained stable at an average of US$0.050/W, while export prices for Chinese 183N cells eased to an average of US$0.043/W. Compliance issues relating to India’s Approved List of Models and Manufacturers requirements have resulted in additional shipments returning to China, placing further downward pressure on export pricing.
Module prices remained broadly stable during the week. TOPCon modules for utility scale projects were priced between RMB0.68/W and RMB0.73/W, while distributed generation modules traded between RMB0.73/W and RMB0.82/W.
Domestic demand in China remains subdued, although utility scale project activity has improved compared with the first quarter. Manufacturers continue to adopt more flexible pricing strategies as competition for new projects intensifies.
Internationally, average TOPCon module prices remained at US$0.116/W. In the Middle East, conflict related shipping disruptions and logistics delays continue to affect deliveries and pricing.
European module prices are also facing upward pressure after freight rates from China to Northern Europe climbed above US$4000 per container following an increase of almost 40% during the past week. Reduced shipping capacity, carrier price increases and continued Red Sea diversions have all contributed to higher transport costs.
Module prices in the United States continue to vary significantly depending on domestic content requirements, with United States assembled products currently priced between US$0.30/W and US$0.33/W.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
