- Loadshedding (blackouts) has been suspended for over seven months (226 consecutive days) since 26 March 2024.
- Peak demand for Eskom generated electricity has dropped in the last 12 months (link to Eskom’s real time peak demand data here).
Following Eskom’s report on Monday, 4 November 2024, regarding the incident with Unit 6 at Kriel Power Station, Eskom can confirm that there has been no impact on its ability to meet the country’s electricity demand.
Related news: Unit 6 at Eskom’s Kriel coal power station catches fire
Over the past seven days, the average total unplanned outages have been 10 127MW, a significant decrease from 16 892MW during the same period last year, representing a reduction of 6 765MW. This ongoing improvement in reducing unplanned outages enables Eskom to carry out more planned maintenance activities and ensures that more generation capacity is available to meet the country’s electricity demand.
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Today’s unplanned outages are at 11 387MW, which is 1 613MW lower than the summer 2024 base case, indicating enhanced operational efficiency in the past week.
Eskom’s EAF increased to an average of 65.2% over the past week and 63.1% year-to-date, with top-performing stations — including Medupi, Camden, Tutuka, Kusile, and peaking facilities — achieving over 70% EAF. Four other power stations recorded EAFs above 60%.
With an available generation capacity of 28 883MW and a peak demand forecast of 26 321MW for tonight, Eskom is well-capacitated to meet the electricity demand. By Monday evening, an additional 4 050MW is expected to return online, with four units on cold reserve this weekend to manage the supply and demand balance.
In August, Eskom shared its Summer Outlook for the period from 1 September 2024 to 31 March 2025, predicting a likely scenario of a loadshedding-free summer due to structural generation improvements. This outlook remains unchanged.
Key Performance Highlights:
Reduction in unplanned outages:
- The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) reduced to 25.2% for the financial year-to-date (1 April 2024 to 7 November 2024), improving from 33.6% in the corresponding period last year.
- This reduction in UCLF represents a ~8.5% improvement compared to the same period last year.
Ongoing Planned Maintenance:
Ongoing planned maintenance is at 5 386MW, aligned with our summer maintenance strategy to further increase the reliability of the stations in preparation for winter 2025 and beyond.
Sustained Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improvement:
- The year-to-date (1 April 2024 to 7 November 2024) EAF remains at 63.1%, a significant improvement of ~7.5% compared to the same period last year (55.6%).
- The weekly EAF has improved from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to 65.2% from 1 to 7 November 2024, an improvement of 8.2%.
- This improvement is primarily due to a drop in unplanned outages (UCLF and OCLF) of the generation units.
Continued strategic utilisation of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs):
Our strategic use of peaking stations, including pumped storage and OCGTs, remains key in managing electricity demand during peak times, particularly during evening peaks (17:00 to 22:00).
- Eskom’s expenditure on OCGTs between 1 April and 7 November 2024 was about R6.2 billion having generated 950.35GWh, approximately 70.3% (R14.6 billion) less than the R20.8 billion spent last year over the same period for 3 356.03GWh.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 April to 7 November 2024 was 5.25 %, compared to last year’s figure of 18.53%.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 to 7 November 2024 was 0.52%, significantly lower than the 24.84% for the same period last year.
- Diesel usage remains below the year-to-date budget.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
Data source: Eskom
