Utility-scale solar is the fastest-growing source of electricity generation in the United States

• Electricity generation by the U.S. electric power sector totaled about 4,260 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) in 2025 according to the latest US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
• U.S. electricity generation will grow by 1.1% in 2026 and by 2.6% in 2027, when it reaches an annual total of 4,423 BkWh.
• The three main dispatchable sources of electricity generation (natural gas, coal, and nuclear) accounted for 75% of total generation in 2025, but we expect the share of generation from these sources will fall to about 72% in 2027.
• The EIA expects the combined share of generation from solar power and wind power to rise from about 18% in 2025 to about 21% in 2027.

U.S. electricity generation is expected to continue growing through 2027, driven largely by rapid expansion in solar power, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The EIA projects total U.S. electricity generation will increase by 1.1% in 2026 and by 2.6% in 2027, reaching 4,423 billion kilowatt/hours (BkWh). While overall power demand rises, the mix of generation sources is expected to shift further toward renewable energy.

Dispatchable power sources—natural gas, coal, and nuclear—accounted for about 75% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2025. That share is forecast to decline to roughly 72% by 2027. Over the same period, the combined share of solar and wind generation is expected to rise from about 18% to 21%.

Utility-scale solar is forecast to be the fastest-growing source of electricity generation in the country. Solar generation is projected to increase from 290 BkWh in 2025 to 424 BkWh by 2027. Nearly 70 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity are scheduled to come online in 2026 and 2027, representing a 49% increase in total U.S. solar operating capacity compared with the end of 2025.

Texas is expected to account for a significant share of new utility-scale solar additions. Solar generation on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid is forecast to grow from 56 BkWh in 2025 to 106 BkWh by 2027. Battery storage capacity is also expanding rapidly in the region, helping to manage daily fluctuations in solar output. ERCOT battery capacity is expected to increase from about 15 GW in 2025 to 37 GW by the end of 2027.

Wind generation, long concentrated in the central United States, is expected to see slower growth in some regions. In the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) territory, new wind capacity additions have slowed, with wind generation projected to average just over 100 BkWh annually through 2027. Solar generation in MISO, however, is expected to grow from 31 BkWh in 2025 to 46 BkWh in 2027 as new projects come online.

Natural gas remains the largest single source of U.S. electricity generation, although its share has declined from a peak of 42% in 2024. The EIA forecasts natural gas-fired generation will total 1,696 BkWh in 2026—roughly unchanged from 2025—before increasing to 1,711 BkWh in 2027 as electricity demand rises. Because overall generation is growing faster, natural gas’s share of total generation is projected to fall to 39% in 2027, down from 40% in 2025.

Regionally, natural gas-fired generation is expected to rise by 23% in ERCOT between 2025 and 2027 and by 5% in the Mid-Atlantic region managed by PJM Interconnection, reflecting growing electricity demand, including from data centers.

Coal-fired generation, which rose 13% in 2025 to 731 BkWh due to colder weather and higher natural gas prices, is expected to decline in the coming years. With existing policies and planned plant retirements, the EIA projects coal generation will fall by an average of 5% annually through 2027, reaching 661 BkWh. Coal’s share of total U.S. electricity generation is forecast to drop from 17% in 2025 to 15% in 2027.

Author: Bryan Groenendaal