South Africa’s power system remains constrained leading into winter

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  • Loadshedding remains suspended in South Africa, however the power system is constrained due to ongoing increased planned maintenance and high electricity demand driven by overcast weather conditions nationwide, which are expected to continue until next Wednesday.
  • Eskom said it will be announcing its winter outlook in due course.

The high level of planned maintenance aims to enhance fleet reliability for peak winter demand while also ensuring compliance with environmental and regulatory requirements. Currently, 7 034MW of the generation capacity is under planned maintenance.

The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF), or unplanned outages, for the financial year-to-date (1 to 3 April 2025), stands at 28.67%, improving from 31.92% in the same period last year. This reflects a ~3.3% reduction and signifies a slight increase in fleet reliability.

At the financial year-end, for the period 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025, the UCLF improved by ~6.3% compared to the previous financial year (1 April 2023 to 31 March 2024).

Eskom has spent R3.4 billion on diesel over the past 30 days, representing a 2.1% decrease compared to the previous 30-day period. Diesel spend at year-end, for the period 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025, wasย  reduced by R16.51 billion. This reflects actual spending which is 49.5% less than the R33.35 billion spent during the previous financial year (1 April 2023 to 31 March 2024).

A total of 3ย 300MW will be returned to service before the evening peak on Monday, 7 April 2025, to further stabilise the grid.

Author: Bryan Groenendaal

Information source: Eskom

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