South Africa’s Minister of Electricity says Eskom has improved generation over the past week plus demand has dropped 

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  • South Africa’s Minister of Electricity, Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, has attributed the reduced stages of load shedding to Eskom’s improved generation over the past week. 
  • The Minister said demand is also lower than what was projected in Eskom’s winter plan.

Addressing the virtual media briefing on the implementation of the Energy Action Plan (EAP), the Minister said government is making significant, yet marginal, progress in relation to the improvement of the plan, which intends to better the performance of Eskom’s power stations in order to ensure energy security.

“The 2nd of June was momentous in our journey to ensure that we address the issue of load shedding in the country. We reached a 60% Energy Availability Factor (EAF). The last time we reached a 60% EAF was on 2 September 2022.

“When we started in May, the improvement in relation to the EAF was about 7 percentage points.

“On average, a 1 percentage point increase represents 477 megawatts (MW). If you have a 7 percentage points increase, you are breaching the 3 000MW of additional generation, so essentially we are talking about three stages of load shedding,” Ramokgopa said on Friday.

The Minister said there has been a reduction in unplanned losses to less than 16 000MW, from over 18 000MW. In addition, planned maintenance has been reduced to approximately 2 500MW.

Eskom’s own performance reporting tells a different story. Week-on-week energy availability factor (EAF) is up 3 percentage points – from 55.06% in Week 21, 2023, to 58.22% in Week 22, 2023. This is around 4.5 percentage points below the EAF of 62.7% for the same Week 22 last year.

Source: Eskom

Eskom latest generation status snapshot – Evening Peak 09/06/2023 (18:20)

  • Eskom Availability 27 958 MW
  • Total Demand: 30 617 MW
  • Loadshedding: 3 060 MW
  • Number of OCGT’s Utilised: 11
  • Renewable Gen: 499 MW IPP
  • Availability (Dispatchable): 1014 MW RES: Wind 288 MW, CSP 206 MW, PV 5 MW Demand Incl: ILS 0 MW, VPS 58
  • MW, LS Eskom Availability incl: 0MW C/R & Non-Comm Peak in Peak Sentout: 27 499 MW

Link to Eskom’s own performance dashboard HERE

“Generation available from wind power has increased due to weather conditions in the coastal regions. Peak demand is averaging less than 29 000MW, compared to 30 000MW projected in the first week of June. If we can keep up energy savings from demand side measures, we can sustain this trend and reduce the severity of load shedding,” Ramokgopa said.

There are teams that are trying to help optimise the Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs). The objective is to increase the load factor of OCGTs to over 20%, reducing load shedding by approximately two stages.

“There is work that has been done by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) and this has to do with the programme that we are doing at Sere, Lethabo and Komati, as there are a number of Solav PV projects taking place there.

“Eskom is to proceed with crucial programmes, including 194.5MW of solar PV at Korati, Lethabo and Sere, and 150MW of battery storage at Komati. The remaining determinations (including for the Load Shedding Reduction Programme and the Cross Border Purchase Programme) are expected by the end of July 2023,” the Minister said.

He emphasised that there is work underway aimed at reducing the levels of load shedding.“We want to sustain this performance and key to this performance are the Eskom units so that they become reliable,” the Minister said.

Ramokgopa noted that the lifting of the licensing threshold for embedded generation projects from 1MW to 100MW in August 2021, and the subsequent removal of the licensing threshold as a key intervention of the Energy Action Plan in December 2022, has resulted in a massive surge of private investment in electricity generation, which continues to outstrip expectation.

“A survey of project developers conducted by Eskom, together with the South African Wind Energy Association (SAWEA) and the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA), shows that 66GW [gigawatts]of wind and solar projects are in development across the country. Read more

“This demonstrates a robust pipeline of private sector investment in new generation capacity. Strengthening the transmission network will be key to enabling this investment,” the Minister said.

In an effort to accelerate energy projects, the Embedded Generation Task Team is supporting over 100 projects to clear regulatory hurdles and enter construction as quickly as possible.

Author: Bryan Groenendaal


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