- Polysilicon prices remain under pressure with further declines expected in July and August as inventories continue to build.
- Wafer and cell prices weaken after SNEC 2026, with oversupply concerns and falling silver prices adding to market uncertainty.
- Global module demand remains subdued despite improving utility scale project activity and stable export pricing.
According to the latest market analysis from InfoLink Consulting, the global solar manufacturing supply chain continues to face significant headwinds, with weak demand, persistent oversupply and mounting inventory levels preventing any meaningful price recovery following SNEC 2026.
In the polysilicon segment, market sentiment remains fragile despite a brief period of price stability after major producers secured large volume contracts in May. Industry sources indicate that inventory pressures have not been resolved but have instead shifted further downstream to buyers and futures market participants.
Transaction activity slowed during the SNEC exhibition period as buyers and sellers postponed negotiations. While procurement discussions have resumed, post exhibition demand remains muted and market participants continue to disagree on pricing levels.
Mainstream prices remain at RMB34 to RMB35/kg for recycled mono grade polysilicon, RMB32 to RMB33/kg for mixed lot material and RMB33 to RMB35/kg for granular polysilicon.
Market participants expect further declines during July and August as demand recovery remains limited. Seasonal low electricity tariffs during the wet season have also enabled some producers to maintain higher utilisation rates than expected, adding to supply pressure. Recycled mono grade polysilicon prices could fall to RMB30 to RMB32/kg, while average market prices may drop below RMB30/kg.
InfoLink Consulting notes that SNEC 2026 did not provide any indication of a market turnaround. Instead, the sector appears to be entering a prolonged period characterised by low utilisation rates, slow inventory reduction and ongoing policy uncertainty. Future pricing is expected to remain largely dependent on demand conditions, inventory levels and cash flow pressures until regulatory measures targeting energy consumption and production capacity are formally implemented.
Outside China, attention is focused on the anticipated release of the United States Section 232 policy framework later this month. While negotiations for non US polysilicon supply contracts continue, US produced polysilicon remains supported by lower policy risk and has shown early signs of price strengthening. Market participants are also closely monitoring the treatment of polysilicon produced in Oman under any new regulatory framework.
Wafer prices remained largely unchanged during the past week, although lower quotations have started to emerge as procurement activity gradually resumes following SNEC. Mainstream prices currently stand at RMB0.90 per piece for 183N wafers, RMB1.00 per piece for 210RN wafers and RMB1.20 per piece for 210N wafers.
Demand from second and third tier manufacturers has improved, contributing to higher transaction volumes. However, the increase in low priced deals suggests that pricing pressure may intensify in the coming weeks.
While wafer inventories increased slightly at the beginning of June, stronger transaction activity is expected to support gradual inventory reduction. Export demand for Chinese wafers remains stable and modest price adjustments could help accelerate stock clearance.
China’s n type solar cell market experienced further price declines this week. Average prices fell to RMB0.31/W for 183N cells, RMB0.315/W for 210RN cells and RMB0.32/W for 210N cells.
A sharp decline in silver futures prices to RMB15,000 to RMB16,000/kg has weakened market confidence. Although manufacturers continue to face relatively high physical silver procurement costs, concerns over oversupply and falling raw material prices are placing additional downward pressure on cell pricing.
In international markets, p type 182P cell prices remained stable at an average of US$0.050/W. Chinese manufacturers continue to export significant volumes to markets outside China, particularly across Africa, as domestic production increasingly shifts towards toll manufacturing arrangements.
N type 183N cell export prices eased to an average of US$0.046/W amid weakening international demand. Oversupply concerns and falling production costs in China have largely eliminated the export premium previously enjoyed by Chinese suppliers, with some overseas quotations now below domestic Chinese price levels.
Module pricing remained broadly stable during the week, although distributed generation projects continue to face pricing pressure. Average delivery prices declined by RMB0.005/W to RMB0.741/W.
Current TOPCon module delivery prices range from RMB0.68 to RMB0.73/W for utility scale projects and RMB0.73 to RMB0.82/W for distributed generation projects.
End market demand remains subdued, with limited new orders and few signs of meaningful demand growth. However, utility scale project activity has improved since the second quarter compared with the first quarter, providing some support for manufacturers.
Module producers are increasingly adopting flexible pricing strategies to secure future project contracts. Recent volatility in silver prices has also prompted manufacturers to revise quotations to reflect changing production costs.
Outside China, average TOPCon module prices remained stable at US$0.115/W. In the Middle East, conflict related shipping disruptions and logistics delays are limiting price movement, while updated market pricing remains under review.
European TOPCon module prices currently range between US$0.11/W and US$0.12/W. In the United States, module pricing continues to vary significantly depending on domestic content requirements, with US assembled modules priced between RMB0.30/W and RMB0.33/W.
Author: Bryan Groenendaa
Data source: InfoLink Consulting
