- Polysilicon and wafer prices continue to weaken amid oversupply and cautious buying.
- Cell prices approach cash cost levels with limited room for further declines.
- Module prices soften in China while global pricing remains mixed due to logistics and regional factors.
Solar supply chain prices continued to trend lower over the past week, with weak downstream demand and rising production weighing on the market across polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules – according to InfoLink Consulting.
In the polysilicon segment, market activity remained focused on fulfilling earlier orders, with buyers showing caution and limiting purchases. Prices held within a narrow band at RMB 30 to 33 per kg depending on product type, but expectations of further declines persist. Increased output from leading producers and higher monthly supply are expected to push average prices below RMB 30 per kg in the coming weeks, with continued low level volatility anticipated through July and August.
Wafer prices also softened as weak demand and slow shipments dragged down market averages. Prices fell to RMB 0.87 per piece for 183N, RMB 0.97 for 210RN, and RMB 1.17 for 210N. Lower priced transactions have become more common, particularly among smaller producers seeking to move inventory. Despite stable pricing from top tier manufacturers, rising supply and inventory levels are expected to keep downward pressure on wafer prices in the near term, with July output forecast at 57 to 58 GW.
Cell prices in China showed signs of stabilisation as rising silver costs tempered aggressive price cuts. Average prices held at RMB 0.27 per W for 183N and 210RN, while 210N slipped slightly to RMB 0.275 per W. However, prices are already near producers’ cash cost levels, and weak demand combined with high inventories may force further low priced sales. High efficiency cell prices are unlikely to fall below RMB 0.26 per W based on current cost structures.
In international markets, p type cell prices remained stable at around US$0.049 per W, supported by more balanced supply and demand conditions. N type cell export prices from China held at US$0.041 per W on average but continue to face downward pressure due to weak order volumes and ongoing inventory reductions.
Module prices in China declined further, with TOPCon modules for distributed projects falling to RMB 0.745 per W and ground mounted projects holding at RMB 0.71 per W. Actual transaction prices are lower, ranging from RMB 0.65 to 0.73 per W for utility scale and RMB 0.70 to 0.76 per W for distributed projects. Although domestic demand is beginning to recover slightly, increased production has pushed monthly output to an estimated 37 to 38 GW, with global output reaching 48 to 49 GW.
Internationally, module pricing trends vary by region. Average TOPCon module prices outside China remain at US$0.116 per W. In the Middle East, logistics disruptions linked to ongoing conflict are constraining market activity and delaying price updates. In Europe, rising freight costs driven by shipping constraints and rerouting via the Red Sea have lifted delivered prices, with rates nearing US$5,000 per container. However, project level pricing continues to reflect softer trends in the Chinese market. In the United States, module prices remain significantly higher at US$0.30 to 0.33 per W, reflecting domestic content requirements and supply chain differences.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
