- A new technical report has outlined the scale of investment required for South Africa to achieve energy security and net-zero emissions by 2050, highlighting a “green industrialisation” pathway as the most cost-effective route.
Commissioned by the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC), the National Planning Commission (NPC), and the National Treasury’s SA-TIED programme, the study was led by PwC with support from Osmotic Engineering Group. It assesses the infrastructure investments needed to meet South Africa’s energy and carbon targets, as outlined in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the National Development Plan (NDP), and the National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) 2050.
The report finds that achieving both energy security and decarbonisation goals will require a total system investment of about R3.5 trillion by 2050 under the green industrialisation scenario, which would see up to 85% of South Africa’s electricity generated from renewables, supported by flexible gas, battery storage and pumped-hydro. This pathway results in the lowest projected emissions—2.1 gigatonnes of CO₂ between 2023 and 2050—but carries the highest upfront capital and grid costs.
Alternative scenarios, including “market forces” and “business-as-usual”, are projected to cost R3.6 trillion and R4.2 trillion respectively, but would result in higher emissions and operational costs. None of the scenarios include new coal or nuclear capacity, in contrast to the Integrated Resource Plan 2025, which allocates 5,200 MW for new nuclear by 2039.
The study suggests that more than R100 billion a year in funding could be raised locally to build new generation, grid, and storage assets. While most local investors expressed confidence in short-term funding availability, concerns remain about a potential funding gap in the longer term, particularly due to policy and regulatory uncertainty and a weak project pipeline.
NPC Commissioner Professor Mark Swilling warned that this gap could emerge later in the decade unless greater clarity is provided around key reforms such as the establishment of an independent Transmission System Operator. DBSA CEO Boitumelo Mosako confirmed the bank’s readiness to support new investments but said the sector urgently needs financial instruments like the proposed Credit Guarantee Vehicle (CGV), expected to launch in 2026, to unlock private investment in transmission projects.
PCC’s Lebogang Mulaisi underscored the importance of ensuring that South Africa’s energy transition remains socially just. “This report is not just about data projections—it’s a tool to support decisions that put people at the centre,” she said. “It provides a clear picture of what is required to deliver reliable, affordable, and sustainable electricity for all South Africans while meeting our climate goals.”
Link to the full report HERE
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
