- South Africa’s state owned energy utility, Eskom, reports that the power system remains stable with over half of the coal-fired power stations performing at an EAF of 70% and above; 3 075MW to return ahead of Monday evening peak to stabilise the grid further.
The generation fleet continues to show ongoing solid momentum, with over half (57%) of Eskom’s fourteen coal-fired power stations now operating at an EAF above 70%, including three stations performing at a notable performance of more than 90%. An additional four stations are operating above 60%, reflecting the fleet’s growing stability and improved reliability.
“Congratulations to ESKOM for making strides in the resolution of load-shedding. Eight of the fourteen power stations are registering EAF of 70% and higher, including one performing at 91.1%. This is a remarkable improvement from the average low of 48% in early 2023,” said South Africa’s Electricity and Energy Minister, Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa in an X message.
Link to Eskom’s real time performance data portal HERE
Since 15 May 2025, there has been no loadshedding, with loadshedding only implemented for 26 hours recorded between 1 April and 31 July 2025. With 30 days of Eskom’s winter outlook period still remaining, the system remains well-positioned to maintain stability and meet demand effectively.
As of today, unplanned outages stand at 8 525MW, the lowest level in recent history, narrowly surpassing the 8 258MW recorded on 28 October 2024. The available generation capacity currently stands at 30 882MW.
Tonight’s electricity demand is expected to reach 27 837MW. The current capacity is sufficient to meet both today’s demand and anticipated requirements over the weekend.
During the week of 25 to 31 July 2025, planned maintenance averaged 4 745MW. Over the same period, the EAF ranged between 64% and 71%, with the month-to-date average rising to 64.08%. This figure excludes the 720MW from Kusile Unit 6, which has been supplying electricity to the national grid since 23 March 2025, although not in commercial operation.
To further strengthen grid stability, Eskom is planning to return a total of 3 075MW of generation capacity to service ahead of the evening peak on Monday, 4 August 2025, and throughout the coming week.
Between 1 April and 31 July 2025, the Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF), which reflects the percentage of generation capacity lost due to unplanned outages, further decreased to 28.58%. This represents a week-on-week improvement of approximately 0.4%, although it remains about 2.3% higher than the 26.28% recorded during the same period last year.
As of yesterday, the UCLF had dropped below the 20% mark, reaching 19.94%, signalling a significant and consistent improvement in generation performance.
The open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) load factor further decreased this week, reaching 0.31%, down from the 1.86% recorded during the previous week (18 to 24 July 2025). From 1 April to 31 July 2025, diesel spend remains within the budget allocated for 1 April to 31 July 2025.
The Winter Outlook, published on 5 May 2025, covering the period ending 31 August 2025, remains valid. It indicates that loadshedding will not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13 000MW. If outages rise to 15 000MW, loadshedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days and restricted to Stage 2.
Key Performance Highlights:
- The average total unplanned outages over the past seven days stand at 10 206MW, compared to 10 229MW during the same period last year, a decrease from the previous week, 23MW lower year-on-year, and 2 794MW below the base case estimate of 13 000MW.
- For the financial year-to-date, planned maintenance has averaged at 5 193MW, representing 11.05% of total generation capacity. This reflects a decrease from the previous week, but a 0.8% increase compared to the same period last year.
- The year-to-date EAF stands at 59.88%, excluding the 720MW contribution from Kusile Unit 6. This figure is below the 62.84% recorded during the same period last year, mainly due to a 2.3% YTD increase in unplanned maintenance compared to the previous year.
- Between 1 April and 31 July 2025, which falls within the winter period, Eskom spent R5.626 billion on fuel for its OCGT plants, generating 954.20GWh of electricity. This output is still higher than the 493.17GWh generated during the same timeframe last year.
- The year-to-date load factor for open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) has marginally decreased to 9.55%, reflecting a 0.56% decrease compared to the previous week. This figure remains higher than the 4.93% recorded during the same period last year.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
