Modelling Nigeria’s path to 100% renewable energy by 2060

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Nigeria has set some of the most ambitious decarbonisation targets in Africa. The country seeks to take the lead in climate action and aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 whilst also meeting the nation’s growing energy needs and offer universal access to electricity to its population.

Besides its 2060 carbon neutrality target, Nigeria has also established a “30-30-30” target, which aims to reach 30 GW of grid-connected capacity with at least 30% of renewable capacity by 2030. This study provides a realistic and data-driven plan to establish the optimal energy transition strategy that Nigeria can adopt to reach both objectives.

Wärtsilä’s highly experienced analysts have used PLEXOS, a leading power system simulation software, to model the optimal way to build a fully decarbonised power system in Nigeria. The modelling defined the cost-optimal energy system structure and operation mode for a given set of constraints in each region: power demand; available generation capacity, storage and balancing technologies as well as financial and technical assumptions.

The model is based on linear optimisation and performed on an hourly resolution for full years. The costs of the entire system are calculated as the sum of the annualised capital expenditures, operational expenditures and fuel costs for all available technologies. The model has been set to define the optimal power expansion plan to meet Nigeria’s targets for 2030 and 2060. The scenario modelled by Wärtsilä will enable policymakers in Nigeria to make informed long-term decisions on building a cleaner and more modern power system for the country.

The latest Electricity Act in Nigeria has created a huge state electricity market. Now the different States in Nigeria can venture into power generation, set up and operate mini-grids. States can partner with the private sector to diversify the generation mix by using the abundant energy resources domiciled in their respective jurisdictions to meet their energy needs.

Link to the full white paper HERE 

As one of the 100 most influential companies recognised by TIME, the highly qualified engineers at Wärtsilä are ready to support States and organisations in Nigeria, in achieving their respective power goals. Their track record of competency and excellence across the continent and the entire globe speak volumes. Wärtsilä power solutions are cost-optimal, reliable and equipped for rapid future energy transitions.

Wärtsilä Nigeria is ready to talk to you:

Address: 23 Oba Akinjobi Street
Ikeja GRA, Lagos
Tel. +234 8057217049 – New Builds enquiry

Author: Bryan Groenendaal


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Green Building Africa promotes the need for net carbon zero buildings and cities in Africa. We are fiercely independent and encourage outlying thinkers to contribute to the #netcarbonzero movement. Climate change is upon us and now is the time to react in a more diverse and broader approach to sustainability in the built environment. We challenge architects, property developers, urban planners, renewable energy professionals and green building specialists. We also challenge the funding houses and regulators and the role they play in facilitating investment into green projects. Lastly, we explore and investigate new technology and real-time data to speed up the journey in realising a net carbon zero environment for our children.

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