- GreenCape has released the 2023 edition of its annual green economy market intelligence reports.
- The reports, available to download free HERE highlight the most promising investment opportunities in key green economy sectors in South Africa namely; energy services, renewable energy, electric vehicles, water management and sustainable agriculture.
The reports are published in partnership with the UK’s Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions (PACT) programme, the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom and the Western Cape Government Department of Agriculture.
The market intelligence reports provide an overview of the national markets in energy, electric vehicles and water, and regional Western Cape market for sustainable agriculture. This includes sections highlighting key developments and achievements, the key players, legislation and regulation, market opportunities and challenges, as well as funding opportunities.
Energy services 2023 MIR
The term energy services (ES) is used to describe three interrelated energy market segments in the South African energy space, namely small scale embedded generation (SSEG) (encompassing system sizes <1 MWp); energy storage; and energy efficiency (EE). Rising electricity prices, energy insecurity, dropping technology costs, supportive energy policies, and policy related incentives prompt consumers to explore alternative energy options driving the growth of the ES market in SA and creating a thriving value chain.
Positive regulatory movement, investor sentiment, and steady recovery in the key commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors have led to continued market growth in 2022. The market is still expected to reach a total capacity of 10 GWp by 2035 at a market value of ~R100 billion. This steady growth, which translates to the potential creation of ~1 250 jobs, is significant in the South African context, considering the ongoing need to reduce the current unemployment rate.
Energy services investment opportunities highlighted for 2023:
• Rooftop solar PV installations: 600-900 mwp p/a, R7.5 billion p/a.
• Behind-the-meter storage: 250 mwh p/a, R2 billion p/a.
• Smart meters: 100 000 to 300 000 upgrade P/A, R1.2 –1.6 billion p/a.
Large-scale renewable energy 2023 MIR
Large-scale renewable energy investment opportunities highlighted for 2023:
• Public procurement of new generation capacity: This opportunity is related to any new renewable energy capacity generated by Independent Power Producers (IPPs) either being sold to the national utility (procured through the Renewable Independent Power Producer Programme (REIPPP)) or to public entities such as local municipalities. The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) stipulates the total market size for electricity generation needed to meet the country’s demand.
• Private procurement of new generation capacity: The potential market size for this opportunity was approximated by the IRP 2019 to be ~500 MW per year, this has however already been exceeded in 2022. For example, the mining sector has reported a pipeline of renewable energy projects over 2 GW that could be brought on stream in 2022/23, with an estimated cost of between R30 billion and R40 billion. The leading technology of interest is solar PV, alongside solar-diesel hybrid power projects or battery energy storage systems for overnight operations.
• Local manufacturing of renewable energy components and systems: It is estimated that by 2030 ~14 million solar panels and ~3 600 wind turbines would be required to fulfil IRP 2019. Annual production assumes 70-90% localisation of key components and 90% of the balance of plant by 2030.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal