- The Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook (MTSAO) assesses the ability of the electricity power system to meet demand within predefined adequacy thresholds in the next five calendar years.
- The current study covers the calendar years 2024 to 2028 and is referred to as the MTSAO 2023.
- No coal power generation capacity will be decommissioned.
- Energy demand growth uncertain.
- Karpowership RMIPPPP projects excluded due to historic and current uncertainties with regard to progress with the projects.
- The constrained transmission grid poses a risk in integrating new generation capacity. This will lead to a negative impact on system adequacy by delaying new generation projects or preventing them from being undertaken entirely. Eskom’s Grid Access Unit has already issued sufficient budget quotations to allow connection of private sector projects modelled in the MTSAO 2023 as a lever; however, the REIPPP Bid Window 7 projects remain at risk and have been modelled as such by reducing the new capacity by 5 000 MW.
- Current projections indicate that commercial operation of Bid Window 5 projects is on track, bringing the total capacity to 7 499 MW by 2026 of renewables from the Independent Power Producer Programme.
- Small-scale embedded generation (rooftop solar) a thumb suck at 880 MW per annum – due to the unavailability of centralised validated data, the extent to which rooftop PV is installed remains a challenge.
Link to the full report her: Medium_Term_System_Adequacy_Outlook_2024-2028
Author: Bryan Groenendaal