France deepens nuclear courtship as Eskom weighs Russia backed route

• South Africa says France is a key strategic partner, with new investment pledges, nuclear cooperation talks and strong political engagement between President Cyril Ramaphosa and President Emmanuel Macron. 
• Eskom is also examining a fast tracked nuclear procurement model inspired by Egypt’s Russia led El Dabaa project, keeping the Russian option firmly in play. 
• The competing signals underline how South Africa’s 5.2GW nuclear plan is becoming a geopolitical as well as an energy policy contest.

South Africa has reaffirmed its commitment to stronger ties with France, even as the country’s nuclear future appears to be split between French diplomacy and a Russian backed procurement path. President Cyril Ramaphosa said France remains a key strategic partner and noted that 30 French companies pledged about EUR 1,11 billion, or ZAR 20,7 billion, in investments at the latest South Africa Investment Conference.

Ramaphosa made the remarks during his official visit to France from 10 to 12 July, where he met President Emmanuel Macron and discussed cooperation across investment, science and technology, defence, education and energy. He also said South Africa is preparing the largest mass infrastructure build in its history and wants French firms to participate in that programme.

Nuclear energy is once again central to the discussion. Ramaphosa has been briefed on an agreement under negotiation on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, while South Africa’s Koeberg plant, built by a French consortium, remains the country’s only commercial nuclear station and a visible symbol of the long relationship between the two countries.

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At the same time, the government is pushing ahead with a broader nuclear expansion plan. Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa says Cabinet has lifted the care and maintenance status of the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor programme, and the latest Integrated Resource Plan targets 5,200MW of new nuclear capacity, with the first 2,400MW planned for Duynefontein next to Koeberg.

Eskom, however, appears to be keeping the Russian option alive. The utility is exploring a procurement model similar to Egypt’s El Dabaa project with Russia, which could allow it to bypass some of the usual delays associated with nuclear procurement by relying on government to government arrangements and vendor financing.

That approach would be controversial. South Africa’s previous nuclear deal with Russia was stopped by the courts in 2017 after objections over public participation and procurement legality, and any renewed move in that direction would likely face similar scrutiny.

For France, the opportunity is clear. A deal tied to existing cooperation at Koeberg and broader industrial ties would be politically easier to sell than a Russian led arrangement, especially as Ramaphosa seeks to attract investment and position South Africa as a destination for large scale infrastructure capital.

For Eskom, the argument is speed and financing. The utility wants to move quickly on new capacity and is looking for a structure that can deliver reactors, fuel, training and waste management support in one package, even if that raises questions over transparency, geopolitics and affordability.

South Africa’s nuclear debate is therefore moving on two tracks at once. France is courting the presidency through diplomacy and investment, while Eskom’s technical and commercial thinking suggests that Russia may still be the preferred short cut for getting a new build programme off the ground.

Author: Bryan Groenendaal