- South Africa’s state owned power utility, Eskom, has reached a milestone of 263 consecutive days without loadshedding, achieved through the successful implementation of the Generation Recovery Plan since March 2023.
- This is despite a spate of recent breakdowns of generation units at Matla (600MW), Kriel (500MW) and Koeberg (920MW) power stations. Read more
The recovery plan has resulted in year-on-year diesel savings of R16.46 billion, approximately 67.7% less than the R24.32 billion spent during the same period last year. Diesel usage remains below the year-to-date budget.
Eskom can confirm that resulting from yesterday’s Matla Power station incident, a further preliminary assessment with clear visibility of the site, indicates that the rupture of a high-pressure steam steel pipe above the Unit 6 dry and service transformers caused yesterday evening’s incident. Technical teams remain on-site, assessing the situation, establishing the damage, and determining the size and scope of the repairs required. At this stage, there is no evidence of sabotage.
In August, Eskom shared its Summer Outlook for the period from 01 September 2024 to 31 March 2025, predicting a likely scenario of a loadshedding-free summer due to structural generation improvements. This outlook remains unchanged.
Over the past week, the average total unplanned outages have been at 12 499MW, an improvement from the 13 827MW recorded during the same period last year, representing a reduction of 1 328MW. Today’s unplanned outages are at 12 486MW, which is 514MW lower than the summer 2024 base case.
Eskom’s EAF was at an average of 57.6% over the past week and 62.7% year-to-date, with top-performing stations — including Camden, Majuba, Medupi, and peaking stations — achieving an average EAF of 70% and above. Two other power stations recorded EAFs above 60%.
With an available generation capacity of 27 369MW and a peak demand forecast of 23 967MW for tonight, Eskom remains on track to meet electricity demand. By Tuesday evening, an additional 4 020MW is expected to return online.
Key Performance Highlights:
Reduction in unplanned outages:
- The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) is at 24.9% for the financial year-to-date (01 April 2024 to 12 December 2024), improving from 33.3% in the corresponding period last year.
- This reduction in UCLF represents a ~8.4% improvement compared to the same period last year.
Ongoing Planned Maintenance:
Ongoing planned maintenance increased to 7 619MW, aligning with our summer maintenance strategy to further improve the reliability of the stations in preparation for winter 2025 and beyond.
Sustained Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improvement:
- The year-to-date (01 April 2024 to 12 December 2024) EAF is at 62.7%, a significant improvement of ~7.2% compared to the same period last year (55.4%).
- The weekly EAF has improved from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to 57.5% from 09 to 12 December 2024, a slight improvement of 0.5%.
Continued strategic utilisation of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs):
Our strategic use of peaking stations, including pumped storage and OCGTs, remains key in managing electricity demand during peak times, particularly during evening peaks (17:00 to 22:00).
- Eskom’s expenditure on OCGTs between 01 April and 12 December 2024 was about R7.86 billion having generated 1 222.37GWh, approximately 67.7% (R16.46 billion) less than the R24.32 billion spent last year over the same period for 3 897.15GWh.
- The OCGT load factor for 01 April to 12 December 2024 stabilised at 5.83%, compared to last year’s figure of 18.58%.
- The OCGT load factor for 01 December to 12 December 2024 was 17.68%, significantly higher than the 1.86% for the same period last year but this is seen as temporary given the current improvement.
- Diesel usage remains below the year-to-date budget.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
Data source: Eskom
