- South Africa’s state owned energy utility, Eskom, continues its loadshedding (blackout) free run for over 191 days.
- Unplanned outages averaging 11 181MW over the past week, compared to 14 743MW during the same period last year, marking an improvement of 3 562MW.
Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) averaged 61% over the past week and 63.2% year-to-date. Top-performing stations such as Kusile, Majuba, Camden, and the peaking stations maintained an EAF above 70%. Additionally, two other power stations sustained an EAF above 60%. Notably, Duvha Power Station achieved 81.9% EAF today, marking another milestone in the recovery plan.
Related news: The data behind Eskom’s loadshedding free run
The ongoing improvement in the generation fleet’s performance is attributed to the recovery plan, accelerated maintenance, collaboration with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and the dedication of power station managers and their teams.
Operational efficiency has been in line with the summer expectations, with unplanned outages varying between 10 700MW and 11 800MW over the past week. Today’s unplanned outages stand at 9 615MW, which is 3 385MW significantly lower than the summer 2024 base case.
As of today, Eskom’s available generation capacity is 30 725MW, with an evening peak forecast of 26 239MW for 04 October 2024.
Additionally, a total of approximately 4 430MW of generating capacity is scheduled to return to service by Monday, 07 October 2024.
Key Performance Highlights:
Reduction in unplanned outages:
- The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) remains at 25.4% for the financial year to date (01 April 2024 to 03 October 2024), improving from 34.14% in the corresponding period last year.
- This reduction in UCLF represents a ~8.7% improvement compared to the same period last year.
- Unplanned outages of the generation units averaged 11 181MW during the past seven days, compared to 14 743MW in the corresponding week last year.
Ongoing Planned Maintenance:
Ongoing planned maintenance is at 7 056MW, aligning with our summer maintenance strategy and bolstered by short-term maintenance to ensure continuous plant reliability.
Sustained Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improvement:
- The year-to-date (01 April 2024 to 03 October 2024) EAF is at 63.2%, a significant improvement of ~7.9% compared to the same period last year (55.3%).
- The weekly EAF has marginally improved from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to 63.19% from 30 September to 03 October 2024, an improvement of 6.19%.
- This improvement is primarily due to a drop in unplanned outages (UCLF and OCLF) of the generation units.
Continued strategic utilisation of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs):
Our strategic use of peaking stations, including pumped storage and OCGTs, remains key in managing electricity demand during peak times, particularly during evening peaks (17:00 to 22:00).
- Diesel consumption remains significantly below projected figures for this summer and is considerably lower than the past two years.
- Eskom’s expenditure on OCGTs between 01 April and 03 October 2024 increased to R5.92 billion having generated 883.0 GWh, approximately 66% (R11.51 billion) less than the R17.43 billion spent last year over the same period for 2 862.32GWh.
- The OCGT load factor for 01 April to 03 October 2024 was 5.79%, compared to last year’s figure of 18.78%.
- The OCGT load factor for 01 September to 30 September 2024 was 13.06%, lower than last year’s figure of 14.02%.
- The OCGT load factor for 01 October to 03 October 2024 was 3.65%, significantly lower than the 8.00% for the same period last year.
- Diesel usage remains below the year-to-date budget.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
Information source: Eskom
