- Power utility forecasts 6GW surplus capacity for winter 2026.
- Diesel costs cut by R26.9 billion as system reliability improves.
- Only about 50% of previously awarded renewable projects have been completed since IRP2019.
South Africa’s state owned utility Eskom has entered the 2026 winter period with a strengthened and more resilient power system, forecasting no loadshedding between 1 April and 31 August 2026. The outlook follows a stable summer season and reflects sustained improvements under the utility’s Generation Recovery Plan.
Eskom reported an energy supply availability of 98.9% for the financial year ending 31 March 2026, a sharp increase from 9% two years earlier. The improvement signals stronger generation performance, enhanced operational discipline and improved system resilience across the national grid.
The utility expects to meet winter demand comfortably, supported by a 5.2GW reduction in unplanned outages and a further 1.1GW contribution from demand side management programmes. This positions the system with an estimated surplus capacity of around 6GW during peak periods.
Base case assumptions for unplanned outages have been lowered to about 12GW from 13GW in the previous winter outlook. Even in higher stress scenarios, where outages could rise to 14GW, Eskom maintains that the system will remain stable without the need for loadshedding.
Grid expansion has continued, with 67,578 new household connections added during the financial year, alongside 2,119 connections through distributed energy resources. Despite increased demand from a growing customer base, improved plant performance and operational buffers are expected to sustain system stability.
Eskom Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane said the utility now has a stable electricity platform that enables economic growth and supports the integration of renewable energy under the Integrated Resource Plan 2025. He added that decisions on new generation capacity and the future of coal fired power stations will be guided by delivery timelines and broader socio economic conditions.
Operational gains have also delivered significant cost savings. Diesel expenditure declined to about R6.4 billion in FY2026, representing a saving of R26.9 billion compared to FY2023 and about R10 billion year on year. The reduction reflects decreased reliance on open cycle gas turbines and improved maintenance execution.
Energy Availability Factor improved by about 10.8%, rising from 54.55% in FY2023 to approximately 65.35% in FY2026, with performance exceeding 70% on more than 83 occasions during the year. Unplanned capacity losses declined by around 7.1GW to about 9.1GW, while planned maintenance increased to an annual average of 5.4GW, supporting long term reliability.
These improvements have enabled Eskom to achieve 341 consecutive days without loadshedding.
Financially, the utility reported a 2.1% year on year increase in pre tax profit and a 1.6% rise in EBITDA, alongside a credit rating upgrade from Standard and Poor’s Global Ratings, its first in over a decade. Governance reforms have also been implemented, including the appointment of a reconstituted board with strengthened technical and financial expertise.
Looking ahead, Eskom confirmed that policy direction under the Integrated Resource Plan 2025 will guide decisions on new capacity and the phased shutdown or repurposing of five ageing coal fired power stations. A final decision is expected in Q2 FY2027.
The utility cautioned that delays in new capacity delivery could pose risks to supply adequacy between 2029 and 2030. Current plans require the rollout of about 10.3GW of solar PV, 7.4GW of wind, 3.7GW of energy storage and 6GW of gas capacity by 2030 to maintain energy security.
Eskom noted that only about 50% of previously awarded renewable projects have been completed since IRP2019, highlighting coordination challenges across the sector. Dispatchable generation, particularly gas to power, remains critical to support renewable integration and grid stability.
On emissions, Eskom remains on track to meet its Climate Investment Funds target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 71 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2025 and 2030. The utility is also advancing research into clean coal technologies, including a high efficiency low emissions demonstration plant, as well as alternative emissions reduction methods such as direct sorbent injection and ammonia co firing.
At distribution level, progress continues in reducing load reduction. More than 340,000 customers have been removed from load reduction schedules, with the Northern Cape and Western Cape now fully exempt. Eskom plans to eliminate load reduction on about 60% of affected feeders by September 2026, supported by the rollout of over 600,000 smart meters and expanded distributed energy connections.
Eskom said these combined measures will help safeguard energy security, support economic growth and enable long term investment across South Africa’s power sector.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
