- South Africa’s state owned power utility, Eskom, reports that loadshedding (blackouts) has remained suspended for over seven months (219 consecutive days) since 26 March 2024.
- Investments in the Generation Recovery Plan have been instrumental in maintaining a stable power supply across South Africa, driving efficiencies, and achieving R13.7 billion in year-on-year diesel savings.
On Monday, 28 October 2024, Eskom achieved a significant milestone in operational efficiency, moving closer to its goal of a 70% Energy Availability Factor (EAF) by end March 2025. This achievement is marked by a reduction in unplanned outages, which are measured by the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) and Other Capacity Loss Factors (OCLF), to 7 299MW. The last time Eskom reached a comparable UCLF milestone was four years ago. This achievement follows Eskom’s recent milestone of delivering the longest stretch of uninterrupted power supply in five years, reaching Day 206 of loadshedding suspension on Saturday, 19 October 2024.
The reduction in unplanned outages means that more generation capacity is available to meet the country’s electricity demand. Additionally, it provides Eskom with the necessary capacity to conduct more planned maintenance activities, which are crucial for further improving the reliability and stability of the generation fleet.
Eskom’s EAF increased to an average of 65 % over the past week and 63.1% year-to-date, with top-performing stations — including Grootvlei, Camden, Medupi, Lethabo, and peaking facilities — achieving over 70% EAF. Five other power stations recorded EAFs above 60%.
Today’s unplanned outages are at 10 284MW, which is 2 716MW lower than the summer 2024 base case, indicating enhanced operational efficiency in the past week.
With an available generation capacity of 30 273MW and a peak demand forecast of 26 022MW for tonight, Eskom remains on track to meet electricity needs. By Monday evening, an additional 4 030MW is expected to return online, with six units on cold reserve this weekend to manage supply and demand balance.
In August, Eskom shared its Summer Outlook for the period from 1 September 2024 to 31 March 2025, predicting a likely scenario of a loadshedding-free summer due to structural generation improvements. This outlook remains unchanged.
Key Performance Highlights:
Reduction in unplanned outages:
- The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) is at 25.3% for the financial year-to-date (1 April 2024 to 31 October 2024), improving from 33.6% in the corresponding period last year.
- This reduction in UCLF represents ~8.3% improvement compared to the same period last year.
- The average total unplanned outages over the past seven days are 9 515MW, compared to 15 993MW during the same period last year.
Ongoing Planned Maintenance:
Ongoing planned maintenance is at 6 094MW, aligning with our summer maintenance strategy to further increase the reliability of the stations in preparation for winter 2025 and beyond.
Sustained Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improvement:
- The year-to-date (1 April 2024 to 31 October 2024) EAF is at 63.1 %, a significant improvement of ~7.5% compared to the same period last year (55.6%).
- The weekly EAF has improved from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to 66.4% from 28 October to 31 October 2024, an improvement of 9.4%.
- This improvement is primarily due to a drop in unplanned outages (UCLF and OCLF) of the generation units.
Continued strategic utilisation of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs):
Our strategic use of peaking stations, including pumped storage and OCGTs, remains key in managing electricity demand during peak times, particularly during evening peaks (17:00 to 22:00).
- Eskom’s expenditure on OCGTs between 1 April and 31 October 2024 was at R6.21 billion having generated 947.34GWh, approximately 68.8% (R13.7 billion) less than the R19.91 billion spent last year over the same period for 3 213.56GWh.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 April to 31 October 2024 was 5.40 %, compared to last year’s figure of 18.83%.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 October to 31 October 2024 was 2.67%, significantly lower than the 14.22% for the same period last year.
- Diesel usage remains below the year-to-date budget.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
