- South African’s continues to experience the ongoing suspension of loadshedding, marking 128 consecutive days of uninterrupted power supply since 26 March 2024, including 94 days of constant supply throughout the winter period.
- There has been no loadshedding since the beginning of Eskom’s current financial year, which commenced on 01 April 2024.
- The last time South Africa experienced such a prolonged loadshedding suspension was over four years ago, between 16 March 2020 and 9 July 2020, when loadshedding was suspended for 116 days.
- Eskom maintained an average Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 71% over the past seven days.
The EAF has surpassed 70% on numerous occasions in the last two weeks. This equating to a ~ 33 180MW available generation capacity which is a substantial improvement from April 2023 when the average daily available generation capacity was at ~23 7000MW.
The Generation Recovery Plan continues to deliver efficiencies for Eskom, with an approximate R9.37 billion reduction in Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) diesel expenditure from 1 April 2024 to 25 July 2024, compared to the same period last year.
Six power stations—Kusile, Lethabo, Majuba, Tutuka, Matla, and Medupi—recorded an EAF greater than 70%. Additionally, three more power stations achieved an EAF above 60%. Notably, five of these stations were part of the priority list in the recovery plan.
Eskom’s operational efficiency continues to surpass our winter assumptions, with current unplanned outages averaging between 9 800MW and 12 400MW since 1 April 2024 – the start of Eskom’s Financial Year (FY) 2025. Today’s figure has reduced to 9 866MW and is significantly lower than the winter 2024 forecast.
The winter forecast, published on 26 April 2024, anticipated a likely scenario of unplanned outages at 15 500MW and loadshedding limited to Stage 2 – this remains in force.
Key Performance Highlights:
Reduction in unplanned outages
- The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) continues to be on a downward trend at 26.13% for the financial year to date (1 April 2024 to 01 August 2024), improving from 34.91% in the corresponding period last year.
- This reduction in UCLF represents an ~ 8.8% improvement in the current financial year (1 April 2024 to 01 August 2024) compared to the same period last year.
- The unplanned outages of the generation units averaged a lower 9 920MW during the past 7 days compared to ~16 393 MW in the corresponding week last year.
Planned Maintenance
The ongoing planned maintenance of 3 776MW aligns with our winter maintenance strategy, bolstered by short-term maintenance to ensure continuous plant reliability.
The latest Eskom week-on-week energy availability factor EAF for 2025. Data source: Eskom. Image credit: Chris Yelland. Chris is an energy analyst, consultant, electrical engineer, public speaker, writer and MD at EE Business Intelligence (Pty) Ltd. Follow Chris on X – @chrisyelland
Sustained Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improvement
- The year-to-date (1 April 2024 to 01 August 2024) EAF increased to 63.03%. This is a significant improvement of ~ 8% compared to the same period last year (1 April 2023 to 01 August 2023), when the EAF was 55.15%.
- The weekly EAF has moved from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to ~ 70.67% from 26 July to 01 August 2024, a significant improvement of about 13.67%.
- The EAF improvement is primarily due to a drop in the unplanned outages (UCLF and OCLF) of the generation units.
Continued strategic utilisation of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs)
Our strategic use of peaking stations, including pumped storage and OCGTs, remains key in managing electricity demand during peak times, particularly during evening peaks (from 17:00 to 22:00).
- Our diesel consumption remains significantly below the projected figures for this winter and is considerably lower than the past two years from 1 April 2024 to 1 August 2024.
- Eskom’s expenditure on OCGTs between 1 April and 1 August 2024 was R3.39 billion, generating 495.30 GWh, approximately 73% (~R9.37 billion) less than the R12.76 billion spent last year over the same period for 2 124.68 GWh.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 April to 1 August 2024 continued to be much lower at 4.91% compared to last year’s figure of 21.08% over the same period.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 July to 1 August 2024 was 1.25%, significantly lower than last year’s figure of 20.58% over the same period.
- Eskom’s diesel usage remains below its published winter forecast and year-to-date budget, with a favourable variance of approximately R4.2 billion by the end of July.
A total of about 3 410MW of generating capacity is scheduled to return to service by Monday, 05 August 2024.
Eskom’s projected evening peak demand for today, Friday, 02 August 2024, is 29 139MW.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
Source: Eskom
