China export tax rebate cut set to cause increase in solar panel prices

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  • Chinaโ€™s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration have announced a reduction in the export tax rebate for PV products.
  • Starting Dec. 1, the rebate for unassembled solar cells (HS Code 85414200) and assembled PV modules (HS Code 85414300) will drop from 13% to 9%.

โ€œWhile the reduced export rebate rate will have minimal impact on production costs for Chinese PV manufacturers, it is likely to provide support for overseas prices, aiding in a potential recovery,โ€ said research firm Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). โ€œHowever, whether prices will actually rise depends heavily on supply-demand dynamics in the respective regions.โ€

The adjustment follows a year of declining PV product prices, driven by increased production capacity across the industryโ€™s value chain. In October, domestic bidding prices in China fell below CNY 0.62 ($0.13)/W, which is widely considered below production cost.

To prevent further price declines and significant financial losses, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) organised a closed-door meeting in October with major PV manufacturers and state-owned energy enterprises.

They agreed on a โ€œfloor priceโ€ of CNY 0.68/W, with state-owned energy companies pledging to reject bids below this price in large-scale tenders, while manufacturers committed to not underbidding it in domestic competitions.

Wang Shujuan, founder of Zhihui Photovoltaic, noted that the tax rebate reduction supports the CPIAโ€™s efforts to stabilize prices, particularly in international markets.

Some industry analysts, who spoke toย pv magazineย on condition of anonymity, said the tax rebate reduction is part of a longer-term strategy.

With Chinese PV products dominating global markets, they said that the government might eventually phase out export tax rebates entirely.

This shift could drive up international PV module prices while maintaining the profitability of Chinaโ€™s major solar manufacturers.

โ€œThe reduction from 13% to 9% might only be the beginning,โ€ one analyst noted, emphasising the potential for further adjustments in the near future.

Author: Vincent Shaw

This article was originally published in pv magazine and is republished with permission.

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