- After implementing stage 3 loadshedding last weekend, South Africa’s state owned energy system, Eskom, confirms that loadshedding remains suspended.
- The system is stabilised and emergency reserves are fully replenished.
Kusile Unit 3 has returned to service after being offline for reconnection to the repaired Flue Gas Desulphurisation (FGD) system and main stack, as authorised by the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE). The main stack, damaged in 2022, required temporary environmental authorisations during its permanent reinstatement. This achievement marks another significant milestone in our recovery plan. Units 2 and 1 are scheduled to complete their reinstatement on 26 March and June 2025, respectively. All three units will be compliant with DFFE directives.
In the current financial year, from 01 April 2024 to 06 February 2025, loadshedding has been suspended for 309 days (7 451 hours), compared to 32 days (2 043 hours) in the previous financial year (01 April 2023 to 06 February 2024). A continuous electricity supply was available 99% of the time, compared to only 10% during the same period in the previous financial year.
The significant efficiencies in year-to-date diesel savings continue, with R16.54 billion saved so far, which is about 59.7% less than the R27.68 billion spent during the same period last year.
A total of 2 750MW will be returned to service by Monday, 10 February 2025, to further stabilise the grid.
Eskom’s Summer Outlook from 01 September 2024 to 31 March 2025, published on August 26, 2024, remains unchanged.
Key Performance Highlights:
- Over the past week (31 January to 06 February 2025), average unplanned outages were 13 118MW, showing an improvement of 1 437MW compared to the same period last year. Year-to-date, the average is 12 198MW, which is 802MW below the summer base case of 13 000MW.
- The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) is at 25.38% for the financial year-to-date (01 April 2024 to 06 February 2025), improving from 32.58% in the corresponding period last year. This represents a ~7.2% improvement.
- The weekly Energy Availability Factor (EAF) increased from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to 59.6% from 03 to 06 February 2025, while the year-to-date EAF is at 61.56%, a significant improvement of ~6.8% compared to the same period last year (54.78%).
- The ongoing planned maintenance at 7 183MW aligns with our summer maintenance strategy, which aims to further improve reliability in preparation for Winter 2025 and beyond.
- As of today, unplanned outages stand at 12 406MW, while available generation capacity is 27 917MW, sufficient to meet tonight’s forecasted peak demand of 25 314MW.
- Strategic use of peaking stations remains key to manage electricity demand during peak times, particularly during evening peaks (17:00 to 22:00).
- Between 01 April 2024 and 06 February 2025, Eskom spent approximately R11.14 billion on fuel for the Open Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) fleet (both Eskom and IPP owned), which is below budget, generating 1 825.10GWh. This is significantly lower than the 4 394.88GWh generated during the same period last year.
- The OCGT load factor for 01 April 2024 to 06 February 2025 stabilised at 7.14%, compared to last year’s figure of 17.19%.
- The OCGT load factor for the last week, 31 January to 06 February 2025, was 10.68%, lower than the 14.43% for the same period last year.
Unsustainable Debt
Eskom is the main provider of electricity in South Africa. Eskom’s municipal debt has snowballed to R95-billion in the last year and has become an existential threat to the utility. Eskom is also challenged with smothering debt and interest costs, which are weighing on its money-generation potential. By October, its debt stock reached R397-billion, and it paid about R90-billion every year in interest rates, largely due to the weakening rand.
Related news: Limited JET funding to date in South Africa from rich nations
Addressing reportable irregularities and legacy management control issues
The recent publication of the FY2024 results was delayed by investigations into legacy management control issues. The qualified external audit opinion received for FY2024 was a result of PFMA records that were not complete or accurately maintained in line with legislative requirements relating to irregular expenditure, fruitless and wasteful expenditure, and losses due to criminal conduct. Except for this qualification, the financial statements are considered to be fairly presented in terms of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).
The audit findings call for appropriate steps to hold officials accountable, and this action is underway. The steps that are already being taken to address the control issues include a strengthened executive team that has the appropriate skills and leadership to drive adherence to internal controls, risk management and PFMA oversight. A resourcing drive to adequately capacitate the finance, internal audit and forensics functions to address key skills lost over the years will commence shortly.
Eskom has consolidated its forensics, security and investigative functions under the Group Investigations and Security function reporting directly to the Group Chief Executive. Additionally, a dedicated project management office has been created to address findings from data analytics as well as internal and external investigations and to address the backlog in investigations and consequence management both internally and externally with law enforcement agencies.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
