- The China Mono Premium—OPIS’ assessment for mono-grade polysilicon used in n-type ingot production—unchanged week-on-week to CNY 52.200 ($7.32)/kg, or CNY 0.110/W, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on October 14.
- The price has now climbed 53.6% from its year-to-date low of CNY 33.975/kg on July 1.
Recent policy signals from China suggest renewed progress on the long-discussed plan for consolidating the polysilicon industry. According to market information, a platform company jointly established by several major polysilicon producers, tasked with acquiring and restructuring surplus capacity, is nearing formal registration.
Participating companies are expected to finalise signing and payment procedures soon. Market sources generally agreed that while the plan has advanced, its pace and scale remain pending official confirmation.
Sources noted that achieving consensus among multiple stakeholders and completing the signing and payment process within a short timeframe would be a significant achievement, exceeding market expectations.
Meanwhile, others pointed out that the plan has been under development for some time, reflecting the authorities’ determination to address overcapacity and steer the solar industry back toward sustainable growth.
The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM) — the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon produced outside of China—was assessed at $18.267/kg, or $0.038/W this week, unchanged on a week-on-week basis.
Industry insiders widely agree that the most influential factor shaping the global polysilicon market outlook is the ongoing U.S. national security investigation into polysilicon and its derivatives under Section 232.
Sources believe that the potential risks associated with this investigation have directly spurred demand for U.S.-made polysilicon, which is currently viewed as the only product entirely free from policy-related uncertainties when entering the U.S. market. One source noted a surge in enquiries for domestically produced polysilicon and its downgraded products.
Another trade source echoed this sentiment, emphasising that U.S. Customs’ stringent traceability requirements have given solar products made with U.S.-origin raw materials a clear advantage when entering the domestic market. Compared with the complex traceability documentation required for other solar products, those products using U.S. polysilicon can sometimes clear customs with only a certificate of origin, the source said.
Given these developments, market participants generally expect that, over the long term, the global polysilicon market may see a widening price gap between different origins, even if such differentiation does not occur immediately.
However, one market observer pointed out that this outcome largely depends on the strictness and eventual results of the Section 232 investigation. The observer explained that a considerable volume of cells and modules still enters the U.S. market from regions such as Africa by “purifying” their production origins.
If the U.S. were to tighten control over supply chain origins further, domestic polysilicon prices could rise to around $30/kg in the long run, the observer added.
In contrast, significant uncertainty surrounds a new polysilicon project nearing operation in the Middle East. A market source noted that products from this new facility may be perceived as an extension of Chinese capacity and could thus potentially face barriers to entering the U.S. market.
Nonetheless, as solar manufacturing capacity expands in India, Turkey and the Middle East, new customer bases and market opportunities are expected to emerge in these regions, the source said.
Source: OPIS
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
