- NOAA raises the probability of El Niño developing by July 2026 to 82%, with a 96% chance of persistence through early 2027.
- Southern Africa faces elevated drought, crop failure, and hydropower disruption risks, while East Africa braces for severe flooding.
- Climate experts warn the event could contribute to 2027 becoming the hottest year on record.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has significantly increased the likelihood of an El Niño weather pattern developing in 2026, raising concerns over major climate disruptions across Africa and globally.
According to the latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is now an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July 2026. Forecast models also indicate a 96% chance that the climate pattern will persist through the Southern Hemisphere summer between December 2026 and February 2027.
Global climate agencies are warning that rapidly warming sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific could lead to a strong or potentially “Super El Niño” event. Current projections suggest a two in three chance that the system could strengthen to a strong or very strong intensity by late 2026, with some models indicating a one in three to one in four probability of record breaking conditions.
Scientists caution that the coming weeks will be critical in determining the extent to which the ocean and atmosphere fully couple, a key factor influencing the ultimate intensity of the event.
For Sub Saharan Africa, the emerging El Niño presents sharply contrasting climate threats that could deepen existing food, water, and energy vulnerabilities across the continent.
Southern Africa is expected to face an elevated risk of severe drought conditions. Countries including South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Botswana, and Namibia historically experience below average rainfall during El Niño years, often accompanied by prolonged mid season dry spells.
The region’s agricultural sector faces significant exposure, particularly for staple summer crops such as maize, oilseeds, and fruit production. Livestock farmers are also expected to face mounting pressure as deteriorating grazing conditions and water shortages increase heat stress and animal mortality.
The energy sector could face additional strain as lower rainfall threatens hydroelectric generation capacity. Water levels at major infrastructure assets such as the Kariba Dam, which supplies electricity to Zambia and Zimbabwe, could decline sharply if drought conditions intensify.
In contrast, East Africa and the Horn of Africa are forecast to experience above average rainfall during the October to December short rains season. Climate experts warn that torrential downpours over already fragile landscapes could trigger widespread flash floods, landslides, and infrastructure damage.
Road networks, bridges, and rural settlements across vulnerable regions could face extensive destruction, increasing the risk of community isolation and humanitarian emergencies.
West Africa and the Sahel are also expected to experience highly erratic rainfall patterns that could disrupt agricultural planning and food production cycles. Delayed or inconsistent monsoon activity may affect the planting of key crops including millet, sorghum, groundnuts, and yams.
Agricultural regions along the Gulf of Guinea, including parts of Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Cameroon, may also face localised drought conditions that could disrupt food supply chains and regional markets.
Humanitarian agencies are warning that the climate impacts are likely to intensify existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities across Sub Saharan Africa.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization have cautioned that declining agricultural yields could accelerate food inflation, increase acute hunger levels, and worsen child malnutrition across vulnerable communities.
Public health risks are also expected to rise. Flooding in East Africa could increase the spread of waterborne diseases such as cholera while creating favourable breeding conditions for mosquitoes that transmit malaria.
Agricultural resilience remains under pressure as the region continues to depend heavily on imported fertiliser, with Sub Saharan Africa importing approximately 80% of its fertiliser requirements. Analysts warn that any renewed global supply chain disruptions or fertiliser price increases during a major El Niño event could further weaken food production systems.
Globally, climate scientists are increasingly concerned that a strong El Niño layered on top of ongoing human driven climate change could push global temperatures to new records, potentially making 2027 the hottest year ever recorded.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
