- Eskom reports that the power system is stable and demonstrated resilience as the cold front hit some parts of the country this week.
- System constraints remain and adequate emergency reserves are in place and strategically deployed to support demand during the morning and evening peak winter periods.
- Link to Eskom’s real time data portal HERE
A total of 5 760MW of generation capacity is expected to be returned to service ahead of the evening peak on Monday, 26 May 2025, to further stabilise the grid.
The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF), which measures unplanned outages, stands at 28.50% for the financial year-to-date (1 April to 22 May 2025). This reflects a slight improvement of ~0.1% compared to 28.56% recorded during the same period last year.
The financial year-to-date planned maintenance has declined to an average of 6 499MW, representing 13.63% of total generation capacity—an increase of 2.8% compared to the previous year.
As the winter season sets in, planned maintenance has gradually decreased, averaging 4 482MW this week (16 to 22 May 2025)—slightly higher than the typical winter maintenance levels in prior years.
The Open-Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) load factor decreased to 7.65% this week, compared to 10.94% in the previous week (9 to 15 May 2025).
The financial year-to-date OCGT load factor reflects a 5.5% decrease compared to the year-to-date figure from the previous week. The diesel expenditure is still within budget for the current financial year.
Diesel usage is expected to decline further as more units return from long-term repairs and maintenance activities are reduced, increasing available generation capacity.
The Winter Outlook, published on 5 May 2025, covering the period ending 31 August 2025, remains valid. It indicates that loadshedding will not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13 000MW. If outages rise to 15 000MW, loadshedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days and restricted to Stage 2.
Key Performance Highlights:
- From 16 to 22 May 2025, unplanned outages averaged 14 095MW, representing a decrease of 16MW compared to the same period last year and 1 095MW above our base case of 13 000MW. For the financial year to date, average unplanned outages stand at 13 819MW. Fluctuations in unplanned outages were mainly driven by outage slips, which occur when a unit initially scheduled for planned maintenance is reclassified as unplanned due to exceeding the scheduled maintenance timeframe.
- The year-to-date Energy Availability Factor (EAF) stands at 57.38%, compared to 60.11% over the same period last year. This decline is primarily due to a 2.8% increase in planned maintenance compared to the previous year and excludes 720MW from Kusile Unit 6, which is not yet in commercial operation.
- Year-to-date, Eskom spent approximately R3.11 billion on fuel for the OCGT fleet, generating 522.48GWh. This is higher than the 201.84GWh generated during the same period last year.
- The year-to-date OCGT load factor stands at 12.26%, representing a 2.4% decrease from the previous week. However, this is higher than the 4.74% recorded during the same period last year.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
Information source: Eskom
