Eskom Performance Outlook: 2021 Will be Worst Year Ever

Opinion

  • South Africa: Energy expert Ted Blom predicts that Eskom is heading for its worst performance ever in 2021.

Responding to Eskom’s updated 3-month electricity outlook, Blom says “historically Eskom has maintained a ‘planned maintenance’ outage of around 5,000MW. Unplanned outages, by definition, are a random number and to arrive at ‘Total Outages’ needs to be added to the planned outage number. The available power to the grid is thus the total installed capacity – Total Outages.”

Blom explains: “historically when the total outages rise above 13,000MW, ‘the magic number’, the Eskom system experiences severe strain, which is then exacerbated by the demand season (Winter vs Summer), day in the week (Workday vs Weekend) and time of day (Off-peak vs Peak).

“Eskom’s own 3-month projection shows a consistent total outage until April 2021 hovering around 20,000MW – i.e. >7,000MW above the magic number. A shortfall of >7,000MW – 8,000MW = Level 8 loadshedding.”

“Based on the above Eskom scenarios,” says Ted Blom, “the likelihood of level 6 loadshedding appears more than 50%, and in worst-case scenarios, even level 8 loadshedding appears very likely to be achieved intermittently. Level 8 loadshedding was compiled by Eskom as an ‘academic exercise’ and entails up to 12 hours without electricity on scheduled days.”

Blom states: “If this is the outlook for 2021, it will be the WORST performance by Eskom ever and I expect the start of major disinvestment by energy-intensive consumers, and further loss of jobs/GDP.”

*Based on Eskom data

Ted Blom is an energy analyst and a regular contributor to ESI Africa and speaker at African Utility Week and POWERGEN Africa (now Enlit Africa). You can contact Ted: tedblom@MiningandEnergy.net

This article was originally published on ESI Africa and is republished with permission with minor editorial changes.  

Disclaimer: The articles expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of Green Building Africa, our staff or our advertisers. The designations employed in this publication and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part Green Building Africa concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities.

Leave A Reply

About Author

Green Building Africa promotes the need for net carbon zero buildings and cities in Africa. We are fiercely independent and encourage outlying thinkers to contribute to the #netcarbonzero movement. Climate change is upon us and now is the time to react in a more diverse and broader approach to sustainability in the built environment. We challenge architects, property developers, urban planners, renewable energy professionals and green building specialists. We also challenge the funding houses and regulators and the role they play in facilitating investment into green projects. Lastly, we explore and investigate new technology and real-time data to speed up the journey in realising a net carbon zero environment for our children.

Receive the week’s most popular stories in your inbox every Saturday morning