- Loadshedding remains suspended and diesel savings reach R15.16 billion year-on-year as investments in the Generation Recovery Plan continue to deliver, placing Eskom on track to meet or exceed its March 2025 EAF target of 70%.
Loadshedding (blackouts) remains suspended for 233 consecutive days since 26 March 2024. South Africa’s state owned and state run energy utility, Eskom, continues to realise efficiencies from the investments made in the Generation Recovery Plan that have contributed to South Africa’s energy security and a structural improvement in the coal-fired fleet.
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The plan has resulted in year-on-year diesel savings of R15.16 billion, approximately 69.9% less than the R21.69 billion spent during the same period last year.
Following Eskom’s report on Monday, 4 November 2024, regarding the incident with Unit 6 at Kriel Power Station which caught fire, Eskom can confirm that there has been no impact on its ability to meet the country’s electricity demand. Furthermore, Eskom can confirm that the fire damage was not extensive, and the unit will not be off for a prolonged time pending the final assessment.
Over the past week, the average total unplanned outages have dropped to 11 235MW, a notable improvement from 16 422MW recorded during the same period last year—representing a reduction of 5 187MW. This continuous progress in minimising unplanned outages allows Eskom to increase planned maintenance activities and ensures greater generation capacity is available to meet the nation’s electricity needs.
Today’s unplanned outages are at 11 381MW, which is 1 619MW lower than the summer 2024 base case, indicating enhanced operational efficiency in the past week.
The latest Eskom week-on-week energy availability factor EAF for 2024. Data source: Eskom/Chris Yelland. Chris is an energy analyst, consultant, electrical engineer, public speaker, writer and MD at EE Business Intelligence (Pty) Ltd. Follow Chris on X – @chrisyelland
Eskom’s EAF was maintained at an average of 61.4% over the past week and 62.8% year-to-date, with top-performing stations — including Kusile, Medupi, and peaking facilities — achieving an average of and above 70% EAF. Four other power stations recorded EAFs above 60%.
With an available generation capacity of 29 157MW and a peak demand forecast of 25 954MW for tonight, Eskom remains on track to meet electricity demand. By Monday evening, an additional 2 540MW is expected to return online.
In August, Eskom shared its Summer Outlook for the period from 1 September 2024 to 31 March 2025, predicting a likely scenario of a loadshedding-free summer due to structural generation improvements. This outlook remains unchanged.
Key Performance Highlights:
Reduction in unplanned outages:
- The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) is at 25.3% for the financial year-to-date (1 April 2024 to 14 November 2024), improving from 33.6% in the corresponding period last year.
- This reduction in UCLF represents a ~8.4% improvement compared to the same period last year.
Ongoing Planned Maintenance:
Ongoing planned maintenance is at 6 971MW, aligning with our summer maintenance strategy to further increase the reliability of the stations in preparation for winter 2025 and beyond.
Sustained Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improvement:
- The year-to-date (1 April 2024 to 14 November 2024) EAF is at 62.8%, a significant improvement of ~7.3% compared to the same period last year (55.6%).
- The weekly EAF has improved from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to 61.4% from 1 to 14 November 2024, an improvement of 4.4%.
- This improvement is primarily due to a drop in unplanned outages (UCLF and OCLF) of the generation units.
Continued strategic utilisation of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs):
Our strategic use of peaking stations, including pumped storage and OCGTs, remains key in managing electricity demand during peak times, particularly during evening peaks (17:00 to 22:00).
- Eskom’s expenditure on OCGTs between 1 April and 14 November 2024 was about R6.54 billion having generated 1 004.45GWh, approximately 69.9% (R15.16 billion) less than the R21.69 billion spent last year over the same period for 3 491.50GWh.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 April to 14 November 2024 reduced to 5.38 %, compared to last year’s figure of 18.69%.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 to 14 November 2024 was 4.98%, significantly lower than the 24.23% for the same period last year.
- Diesel usage remains below the year-to-date budget.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
Data source: Eskom
