- South Africa’s state owned energy utility, Eskom, reports that the ongoing suspension of loadshedding, marks 107 consecutive days of uninterrupted power supply since 26 March 2024.
- These 107 consecutive days include 73 days of constant supply since the onset of winter.
- They say the ongoing stability is a testament to the dedicated efforts of Eskom’s 40 000 employees in implementing the Generation Recovery Plan, which began in March 2023, as well as carrying out extensive planned maintenance.
- But it is also due to a drop in demand for Eskom supplied electricity as the private sector pivots to self generation on the back of many years of daily blackouts sometime up to 10 hours or more per day.
- It is estimated that Eskom has seen a drop in peak demand of between 2GW and 3 GW in the last 12 months.
Eskom weekly peak demand outlook leading up to March 2025. Source: Eskom
Eskom reports that reaching the 107-day milestone further indicates the efficiencies the Generation Recovery Plan is delivering for Eskom, with around ~R7.65 billion reduction in Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT) diesel expenditure from 1 April 2024 to 11 July 2024, compared to the same period last year.
Eskom’s operational efficiency continues to surpass planned expectations, with current unplanned outages averaging at 12 500MW since the start of FY25 and today’s figure recorded at 12 011MW, significantly lower than the winter forecast.
The winter forecast, published on 26 April 2024, anticipated a likely scenario of unplanned outages at 15 500MW and loadshedding limited to Stage 2 – this remains in force.
Key Performance Highlights:
Reduction in unplanned outages
- The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) has seen a decrease to 26.99% for the financial year to date (1 April 2024 to 11 July 2024), improving from 34.78% in the corresponding period last year.
- This reduction in UCLF represents a ~7.8% improvement in the current financial year (1 April 2024 to 11 July 2024) as compared to the previous year in the same period.
- The unplanned outages of the generation units averaged at 11 950MW during the past 7 days.
- The reduction in unplanned outages contributing to the total available capacity which is currently at 31 751MW.
Planned Maintenance
The ongoing planned maintenance of 4 801MW aligns with our winter maintenance strategy, bolstered by short-term maintenance to ensure continuous plant reliability.
Sustained Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improvement
- The year-to-date (1 April 2024 to 11 July 2024) EAF increased to 61.8%. This is a significant 7% improvement compared to the same period last year (1 April 2023 to 11 July 2023), where the EAF was 54.76%.
- The weekly EAF has moved from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to 66.44% from 8 July to 11 July 2024 a significant improvement of 9.44%.
- The EAF improvement is primarily due to a drop in the unplanned outages of the generation units which averaged at 11 950 MW during the past 7 days.
Continued strategic utilisation of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines:
Our strategic use of peaking stations to effectively manage electricity demand during peak times that includes pumped storage and the Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs), has been key in meeting the heightened winter demand, particularly during evening peaks (from 17:00 to 22:00).
- Our diesel consumption remains under the projected figures for this winter and is considerably lower thanthe past two years from 1 April 2024 to 11 July 2024.
- Eskom’s expenditure between 1 April and 11 July on OCGTs was R3.33 billion, generating 487.16GWh approximately 70% (~R7.65billion) less than the R10.98 billion spent last year over the same period for 1 822.67GWh.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 April to 11 July 2024 continued to be much less at 5.83% compared to last year’s figure of 21.81% over the same period.
- The OCGT load factor for 1 July to 11 July 2024 was 2.74%, which is lower when compared to last year’s figure of 26.37% over the same period.
- Eskom’s diesel usage remains below its published winter forecast and year-to-date budget.
A total of about 1 436MW of generating capacity is scheduled to return back to service by Monday, 15 July 2024.
Eskom’s projected evening peak demand for today, Friday, 12 July 2024, is 29 737MW.
Save your transformer and save lives campaign
With the temperatures dropping and the consequent increase in electricity demand, Eskom is facing recurring challenges of network overloading in certain regions. This issue is largely attributed to illegal connections, vandalism, meter tampering, unauthorized network operations, theft of network equipment, and the purchase of electricity from unlicensed vendors/sellers.
To avert potential dangers to public safety and the risk of network overloading which could lead to load reduction measures at any instance and extended unplanned power outages, Eskom strongly encourages customers to moderate their electricity usage during the suspension of loadshedding. It is also imperative that customers ensure their electrical connections are lawful and that they procure electricity solely from authorised vendors.
Eskom implores the public to play an active role in safeguarding the integrity of the power network by reporting any illegal activities to the Eskom Crime Line at 0800 112 722 or via WhatsApp at 081 333 3323.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
Reported data source: Eskom
