- Energy Availability Factor rises to 64.95 percent year to date, with continued decline in unplanned outages.
- Diesel usage and costs fall sharply as reliance on emergency generation decreases.
South Africa’s state owned energy utility, Eskom, reports the Energy Availability Factor has increased to 64.95 percent year to date, covering the period from 1 April 2025 to 29 January 2026.
Between 23 and 29 January 2026, average unplanned outages fell to 8 362MW, compared to 12 993MW during the same period last year. This represents an improvement of 4 630MW. Over the same week, the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor reduced to 17.27 percent, down from 27.17 percent a year earlier.
Planned maintenance levels have also moderated. During the same period, Eskom’s Planned Capacity Loss Factor averaged 10.46 percent, compared to 15.82 percent in the previous financial year. Eskom attributes this reduction to the intensive maintenance programme implemented over the past year, which focused on restoring fleet reliability and is now delivering lower unplanned outages.
The improved generation performance has reduced reliance on costly diesel fired Open Cycle Gas Turbines. Eskom reports that 6 202MW of capacity is currently in cold reserve due to excess generation availability. After five consecutive weeks with no diesel expenditure for OCGT operations, diesel spend of R1.61 million was recorded during the past week, linked to 0.285GWh of energy sent out. Despite this, total diesel expenditure remains R4.26 billion lower than at the same point last year and continues to track below budget year to date.
Looking ahead, Eskom plans to bring 2 200MW of generation capacity online ahead of the evening peak on Monday, 2 February 2026. Evening peak demand is forecast at 23 014MW, with available capacity of 28 565MW, providing a healthy reserve margin.
From 1 April 2025 to 29 January 2026, Eskom generated 1 049.67GWh from OCGT plants at a diesel cost of R6.231 billion. This is significantly lower than the 1 714.25GWh generated during the same period last year, which cost R10.491 billion. The utility notes a 38.8 percent reduction in OCGT energy generation and a 40.6 percent year on year decrease in diesel expenditure, with diesel usage declining consistently since May 2025.
Eskom also reported progress in ending load reduction, with 115 860 customers no longer affected during peak periods. However, illegal connections and meter tampering continue to pose risks to infrastructure and public safety. Load reduction remains in place as a temporary measure in high risk areas.
To address this challenge, Eskom has launched a phased programme to eliminate load reduction by 2027. The initiative will target 971 feeders and is expected to benefit around 1.69 million customers nationwide through smart meter rollout, integration of distributed energy resources and expanded Free Basic Electricity support.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
