- Eskom has reached 289 consecutive days without implementing load-shedding since 26 March last year.
Over the past week, Eskom continued to utilise the summer break and the lower demand from industry to increase planned maintenance activities to further improve the reliability of its generation fleet for the winter period, which starts on 1 April 2025, with maintenance averaging at ~8 000MW.
In August, Eskom shared its summer outlook for the period from 01 September 2024 to 31 March 2025, predicting a likely scenario of a loadshedding-free summer due to structural generation improvements. This outlook remains unchanged. Our year-to-date unplanned outages average is 11 982MW, which is 1 018MW less than our 2024/5 summer base case of 13 000MW.
Over the past seven days, the average total unplanned outages stood at 14 155MW, reflecting a slight improvement compared to the 14 611MW recorded during the same period last year—a reduction of 456MW. This performance is primarily due to delays in returning some units undergoing planned maintenance to service combined with the loss of generating units as a result of boiler tube leaks. As of today, unplanned outages are at 14 077MW, which is 1 077MW higher than the summer 2024 base case.
To meet demand under these circumstances, reliance was placed on a higher Open-Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) load factor for the period under review, which has since decreased. An additional 4 150MW of generation capacity is expected to return to service by Monday evening.
Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improved slightly from an average of 54.65% to 56.97% over the past week, with Koeberg, Medupi and all peaking stations achieving an average EAF of 70% and above. Two other power stations recorded EAFs above 60%.
With an available generation capacity of 27 553MW and a peak demand forecast of 24 608MW for tonight, Eskom remains on track to meet electricity demand.
Key Performance Highlights:
Reduction in unplanned outages:
- The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) is at 25.09% for the financial year-to-date (01 April 2024 to 09 January 2025), improving from 32.86% in the corresponding period last year.
- This reduction in UCLF represents a ~7.8% improvement compared to the same period last year.
Ongoing Planned Maintenance:
Ongoing planned maintenance at 5 787MW, is aligned with our summer maintenance strategy to further improve the reliability of the stations in preparation for winter 2025 and beyond.
Sustained Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improvement:
- The year-to-date (01 April 2024 to 09 January 2025) EAF is at 61.99%, a significant improvement of ~7.0% compared to the same period last year (55.05%).
- The weekly EAF slightly reduced from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to 56.97% from 06 January 2025 to 09 January 2025.
Continued strategic utilisation of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs):
Our strategic use of peaking stations, including pumped storage and OCGTs, remains key in managing electricity demand during peak times, particularly during evening peaks (17:00 to 22:00).
- Between 1 April 2024 and 9 January 2025, Eskom spent approximately R9.39 billion on OCGTs, generating 1 527.02GWh. This is significantly lower than the R25.67 billion spent during the same period last year, which produced 4 094.48GWh.
- The OCGT load factor for 01 April 2024 to 09 January 2025 stabilised at 6.56%, compared to last year’s figure of 17.60%.
- The OCGT load factor for 01 to 09 January 2025 was 20.05%, higher than the 7.97% for the same period last year but this is seen as temporary given the current improvement.
- Diesel usage remains below the year-to-date budget.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
Source: Eskom
