Open-Ed
Energy security threats are constantly evolving, posing challenges for countries around the world seeking to protect their economies and populations from the potential impacts.
As the global authority on energy security, the IEA helps governments around the world address the full spectrum of risks – from traditional ones like those affecting oil and gas supplies to emerging ones in areas such as critical minerals, energy technology supply chains and the transformation of electricity systems.
An extensive new update of our Global Energy Policies Hub– the most complete public repository of energy policies worldwide – allows us to assess the evolution of energy security policies over the last 55 years. With its 5 000 entries, the Hub provides a comprehensive picture of the state of energy policies for over 84 countries, covering all aspects of each energy sector.
Compared with the early 1970s, a lot more countries have far more tools in place and wider coverage in areas like oil security, gas security, and energy efficiency. Many countries have implemented IEA policy recommendations, making them better prepared to buffer the impacts of energy disruptions as a result. These recommendations have come from a wide range of IEA outputs, including our regular reviews of the policies of IEA countries as well as special reports on specific issues, such as our 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union’s Reliance on Russian Natural Gas released in early 2022.
This is welcome progress and clearly needed, as events of recent months and years have underlined. But many of the tools we have come to rely on today originally came from actions taken to strengthen energy security after a crisis has hit.
And in this lies an important lesson – we must better anticipate and prepare for energy crises before they happen, particularly in fast-evolving areas like critical minerals and technology supply chains, electricity and digital security, and climate resilience.
Lessons from history
Our Global Energy Policies Hub shows that many of today’s energy security policies stem from hard-learned lessons in the past – from the oil crises of the 1970s to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and many chapters in between.
Nearly all major oil-importing countries worldwide now have some form of oil security policy, whether stockpiles or emergency plans. In fact, countries with at least one such measure account for 98% of global net oil imports.
This is an important achievement, but increasing the amount of these countries that are within the IEA’s emergency coordination mechanism would bring even stronger security benefits.
The focus on natural gas security has rightly increased in recent years, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and restricting of gas supplies to Europe. The share of global gas imports covered by storage obligations almost tripled between 2015 and 2025 to reach 32%. Gas supplies have also diversified, notably through LNG.
At the same time, governments have been putting in place actions to moderate energy demand, a key approach for reducing vulnerability. About 130 countries now have energy efficiency policies, which can reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports, improve grid reliability, and act as a buffer to supply shocks. These measures have strengthened energy security, but their potential is still far from exhausted.
And more than three-quarters of global electricity demand is now subject to policies that diversify the power mix. Renewables and nuclear – which offer countries the ability to generate electricity with far less reliance on imported fuels – accounted for 80% of the growth in global electricity generation in 2024, accounting for 40% of total generation for the first time.
Many countries now talk about their energy security objectives and clean energy objectives as “two sides of the same coin”. For example, the growth of renewables and the comeback of nuclear power in Europe in recent years have been driven mainly by energy security concerns.
Emerging threats and responses
As energy systems become more diverse and complex, so do the energy security threats they face. An area of focus that has moved rapidly up the agenda in recent years is the supply of critical minerals that go into a wide range of technologies in the energy sector – such as solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and power grids – as well as in other sectors like electronics and aerospace.
For example, in 2024, the average market share of the top three producers for key energy-related critical minerals and metals rose to 86%, up from 82% in 2020. This trend goes against diversification, a cornerstone of energy security. And the risks of concentration are not limited to the minerals alone; they can extend throughout the supply chains for a wide range of important energy technologies.
Other evolving risks that require closer attention include cyberattacks, the increasing complexity of electricity systems, and the impacts of climate-related stresses on infrastructure.
One lesson from past experience is that strategic stocks can be invaluable in a crisis – providing both a reassuring market signal and an essential policy lever to pull should it be needed – even if they are not a solution for every risk. Developing strategic stocks where they are appropriate requires significant lead time, so the time to start is therefore well before a supply emergency arrives.
The creation of an emergency oil stockholding system by IEA members in the 1970s was a historic undertaking – but it has paid off repeatedly over the years. More recently, an increasing number of countries have established or enhanced their natural gas storage policies to provide a buffer for winter peaks or potential disruptions.
For critical minerals, only four countries have established strategic stockpiles to date. Rising export restrictions by several key producer countries are raising the risks of mineral shortages that could ripple across the globe, catching underprepared countries off guard.
At the IEA, we are intensifying efforts under our Voluntary Critical Minerals Security Programme to support countries in strengthening resilience against potential supply disruptions and advancing supply diversification. This included holding the programme’s first stockpiling workshop in June.
The future of energy security
More broadly, the IEA is working to advance a more holistic approach to energy security that encompasses a broad range of risks across all fuels and technologies, building on the discussions that took place at the international Summit on the Future of Energy Security that we co-hosted with the UK government in London in April.
At the Summit, I emphasised three “golden rules” for tackling energy security that have served us well in the past and will continue to do so in the future: diversification, predictability and cooperation.
What does this mean in practice?
It means diversifying energy supply routes and sources so that no single point of failure can cripple the system and continuing to improve efficiency and demand response so that we can cope better with shortfalls.
It means setting a consistent policy direction that encourages investment to make energy infrastructure more reliable, resilient, and repairable – and with sufficient redundancy built in if needed. From upgrading and weather-proofing the grid, to building more interconnections and storage, and designing networks that can quickly reroute supplies when disruptions occur.
It also means deepening international cooperation. No country is an energy island. Sharing data, best practices, and even strategic reserves can boost collective security.
While the threats to energy security will always keep changing, the right time to act upon them will always be well before the next crisis.
Author: Fatih Birol – Executive Director at International Energy Agency (IEA)
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