- Polysilicon, cell and module prices continue to weaken as oversupply and cautious buying weigh on the market.
- Rising production and subdued downstream demand are expected to keep pricing under pressure through July and August.
- Lower silver prices and higher freight costs are reshaping module pricing across global markets.
Solar supply chain prices remained under pressure during the week of June 25 to July 1 as weak demand, rising production and cautious purchasing continued to weigh on the market, according to InfoLink Consulting‘s latest weekly spot price assessment.
Polysilicon trading remained limited during the week, with buyers focusing on small volume purchases while waiting for further price declines. Recycled mono grade polysilicon traded at RMB31 to RMB33/kg, mono grade polysilicon mixed lots at RMB30 to RMB32/kg and granular polysilicon at RMB32 to RMB33/kg.
Market participants expect polysilicon prices to remain weak during July and August as production increases following the return of major manufacturers and seasonal changes. Recycled mono grade polysilicon could fall to RMB30 to RMB32/kg, while the overall market average may drop below RMB30/kg.
The industry is also monitoring China’s upcoming Norm of Energy Consumption per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium, which will take effect on January 1, 2027. The earlier than expected release of the standard is viewed as a positive step towards removing inefficient production capacity. The reduction of the rectification period from one year to six months is expected to provide greater certainty for manufacturers planning capacity exits.
Wafer prices remained largely unchanged during the week, with 183N wafers priced at RMB0.88 per piece, 210RN wafers at RMB0.98 per piece and 210N wafers at RMB1.18 per piece.
However, lower end transaction prices continued to soften as smaller manufacturers accepted lower selling prices despite maintaining official quotations. Tier one manufacturers largely maintained pricing near the market average.
July wafer production is expected to increase slightly compared with June as higher utilisation rates among integrated manufacturers offset production cuts by some producers. Supply continues to outpace demand, leaving wafer prices under pressure in the short term.
Cell prices in China also declined across all major product categories. Average prices for both 183N and 210RN cells fell to RMB0.27/W, while 210N cells averaged RMB0.28/W.
Manufacturers continue to face elevated inventory levels, pushing selling prices closer to cash cost levels. While production plans for July have not yet been significantly reduced, some manufacturers are expected to adjust operating rates during July and August in response to market conditions, which could help stabilise prices.
Outside China, the average export price for 182P cells declined to US$0.049/W, while 183N cells averaged US$0.041/W. Increased inventories and continued oversupply are expected to place further downward pressure on export prices during July.
Module prices also weakened during the past week. Ground mounted TOPCon module prices in China declined by RMB0.01/W to RMB0.71/W, with the overall market average reaching RMB0.737/W. Current delivery prices range between RMB0.65/W and RMB0.73/W for utility scale projects and RMB0.73/W to RMB0.76/W for distributed generation projects.
The recent decline reflects weak end market demand, limited new orders and lower manufacturing costs following the sharp fall in silver prices. Lower silver costs have strengthened buyer expectations for additional module price reductions, resulting in more aggressive price negotiations across the market.
Internationally, average TOPCon module prices remained stable at US$0.116/W. In the Middle East, logistics disruptions linked to regional conflict continue to affect shipments and delay price adjustments.
European module pricing is also being influenced by rising shipping costs. Freight rates on routes between China and Northern Europe have increased sharply since early June, approaching US$5,000 per 40 foot high cube container as reduced shipping capacity and Red Sea diversions continue to disrupt global logistics.
In the United States, module prices remain highly variable depending on domestic content requirements, with locally assembled modules currently priced between US$0.30/W and US$0.33/W.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
